United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2004

United States presidential election in Wisconsin, 2004

November 2, 2004

Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush Party Democratic Republican Home state Massachusetts Texas Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney Electoral vote 10 0 Popular vote 1,489,504 1,478,120 Percentage 49.70% 49.32%

County Results   Kerry—80-90%   Kerry—60-70%   Kerry—50-60%   Kerry—<50%   Bush—<50%   Bush—50-60%   Bush—60-70%

President before election George W. Bush Republican Elected President George W. Bush Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 0.4% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a toss-up, or swing state. The state had similar demographics and was a showdown state just like its bordering states: Michigan, Minnesota, and Iowa. On election day, Senator Kerry barely carried the state over President George W. Bush. The results were nearly identical to the 2000 election, when Al Gore squeaked by Bush.

Primaries

• Wisconsin Democratic primary, 2004

Campaign

Predictions

Elections in Wisconsin
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Ballot measures 2006 Referendum 1
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There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.^[1]

1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
2. Associated Press: Toss-Up
3. CNN: Bush
4. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up
5. Newsweek: Toss-Up
6. New York Times: Toss-Up
7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up
8. Research 2000: Toss-Up
9. Washington Post: Battleground
10. Washington Times: Battleground
11. Zogby International: Kerry
12. Washington Dispatch: Bush

Polling

Pre-election polling had Bush and Kerry winning polls, with neither candidate grasping a strong lead. The last 3 poll average showed Bush leading 49% to 46%.^[2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,993,040.^[3] Kerry raised $1,130,602.^[4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 12 times. Kerry visited the state 14 times.^[5] A total of between $1.3 million to $3.6 million was spent each week.^[6]

Analysis

Wisconsin has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in the last four elections before the sixth time in 2004. The urban centers of Milwaukee and Madison tend to vote strongly Democratic. The suburbs of those cities are politically diverse, but tend to vote Republican. Counties in the western part of the state tend to be liberal, a tradition passed down from Scandinavian immigrants. The rural areas in the northern and eastern part of the state are the most solidly Republican areas in Wisconsin.

The CNN exit polls showed a dead heat between the two. However, the deciding factor for Kerry's victory was union members who voted for him with 62%, while non-members (83% of the population) voted for Bush with just 52% of the vote.^[7]

Results

Results breakdown

By county

By congressional district

Bush and Kerry each won four congressional districts.^[8]

Electors

Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards.

1. Gail Gabrelian
2. Margaret McEntire
3. Jordan Franklin
4. Martha Toran
5. Jim Shinners
6. Jan Banicki
7. Daniel Hannula
8. Steve Mellenthin
9. Glenn Carlson
10. Linda Honold

References

See also

State results of the United States presidential election, 2004
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