United States presidential election in Missouri, 2008

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2008
Missouri
November 4, 2008
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,445,814 1,441,911
Percentage 49.4% 49.2%

County Results
  Obama—80-90%
  Obama—60-70%
  Obama—50-60%
  Obama—<50%
  McCain—<50%
  McCain—50-60%
  McCain—60-70%
  McCain—70-80%
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

 Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

The 2008 United States presidential election in Missouri was held on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election, which took place throughout all 50 states and D.C.. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

Missouri was won by Republican nominee John McCain by just shy of 4,000 votes, a 0.1% margin of victory. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this state a toss-up, or a swing state. On election day, Missouri was the closest state in 2008, with some news organizations not calling the state until two weeks after the election. A high turnout of voters in the GOP strongholds of Greene County (Springfield) and St. Charles County combined with Democrat Barack Obama's lackluster performance in the more rural parts of the state gave the edge to Republican John McCain. McCain nipped Obama by fewer than 4,000 votes and the margin of victory was a minuscule difference of 0.13%. The state was so close that Obama could have legally called for a recount, but since he had already won the presidency, he saw no need to do so as the results would have been meaningless in the national totals. It was the first time since 1956, and only the second time since 1900, that Missouri did not vote for the winner of the presidency.

Primaries

Campaign

With the advent of the September financial crisis, Obama began to look viable. John McCain's lead diminished and then disappeared; for several weeks Obama even led Missouri polls.[1] Obama started visiting Republican-leaning states, including Missouri. In one of the more memorable trips of the campaign, he drew crowds of 75,000 at Kansas City and 100,000 at St. Louis.[2] However, John McCain's campaign managed to close the gap and most polls showed a dead tie on and before Election Day.

Although seven of Missouri's eight neighboring states offered the option of early voting, the option was not available in Missouri.[3] Election results must go through a certification process before they are official; local election officials had until November 18 to verify their results and process the provisional ballots cast throughout Missouri.[3]

Predictions

There were 17 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

  1. D.C. Political Report: Republican[4]
  2. Cook Political Report: Toss-Up[5]
  3. Takeaway: Toss-Up[6]
  4. Election Projection: Leaning McCain[7]
  5. Electoral-vote.com: Leaning McCain[8]
  6. Washington Post: Leaning McCain[9]
  7. Politico: Leaning McCain[10]
  8. Real Clear Politics: Toss-Up[11]
  9. FiveThirtyEight.com: Leaning McCain [12]
  10. CQ Politics: Toss-Up[13]
  11. New York Times: Toss-Up[14]
  12. CNN: Toss-Up[15]
  13. NPR: Leaning McCain[9]
  14. MSNBC: Toss-Up[9]
  15. Fox News: Toss-Up[16]
  16. Associated Press: Toss-Up[17]
  17. Rasmussen Reports: Toss-Up[18]

Polling

Throughout the general election, McCain consistently won the state's pre-election polls, even reaching above 50% in some of them. In the fall campaign, polls were back and forth with both. In the last few weeks when Obama was having the momentum, the final 5 polls taken in the state were all a tie.[19]

Here are the final polls in the state:

Poll Source Date administered Democrat % Republican % Lead Margin
Reuters/Zogby October 31-
November 3, 2008		 Barack Obama 48.8% John McCain 48.8%
0
Rasmussen Reports/
Fox News		 November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 49% John McCain 49%
0
Public Policy Polling October 31 – November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 49.4% John McCain 48.6%
0.8
Reuters/Zogby October 30-
November 2, 2008		 Barack Obama 47.4% John McCain 45.7%
1.7
Survey USA October 30 – November 2, 2008 Barack Obama 48% John McCain 48%
0

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $2,904,162 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,999,812.[20]

Advertising and visits

Obama and his interest groups spent $11,323,706. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,428,559.[21]

The Democratic ticket visited the state 13 times throughout the general election. The Republican ticket visited here 14 times.[22]

McCain's Visits:

Obama's Visits:

Analysis

For the better part of a century, Missouri has been reckoned as the nation's bellwether state. Prior to 2008, since 1904, Missouri had voted for the winner in every presidential election except in 1956 when the state narrowly voted for Democrat Adlai Stevenson of neighboring Illinois over incumbent Republican President Dwight D. Eisenhower. In recent years, however, it has gradually been trending Republican. Although Bill Clinton of neighboring Arkansas won the state with ease during both of his elections in 1992 and 1996, Al Gore and John Kerry considered the Show-Me State a lost cause and did not campaign much there. Although Barack Obama is from neighboring Illinois, at first he likewise put the state as a secondary concern in relation to other swing states such as Ohio and Virginia where he thought he had more of a chance. As his lead diminished in the summer months, he and McCain moved the campaign to more Democratic-friendly states, as McCain maintained a comfortable polling lead in Missouri. Similar hypothetical general match-up polls taken between McCain and Hillary Rodham Clinton, however, showed Clinton always leading in Missouri.

A record 2.9 million Missourians, or 69% of eligible voters, cast their ballots in the general election, about 200,000 more than the previous record in the 2004 election.[33]

On Election Day, John McCain clung to a tiny lead, with absentee and provisional ballots yet to be counted. By Wednesday, November 19, McCain led President-elect Obama by 1,445,813–1,441,910 votes,[3] or approximately 0.14% of the total popular vote in Missouri. CNN called the state for McCain that day.[34] The 2008 presidential election was only the second time in 104 years that it had not voted for the winner of the general election. Missouri was, however, the closest state of the 2008 election.

The Democratic base of Missouri rests in its two largest cities in the west and east – Kansas City and St. Louis, respectively. Obama did extremely well here, winning 83.55% of the vote in St. Louis City and 78.4% in Kansas City. Obama was already a familiar face to St. Louis-area voters, since the St. Louis metro area spills into Illinois. McCain narrowly won the areas in Jackson County outside Kansas City with 49.9% to Obama's 48.8%, but Obama carried the county with 62.14% of the vote due to his strong performance in Kansas City. These two counties, combined with highly affluent and suburban St. Louis County (where he also won 59.50% of the vote), gave him a 300,000 margin over McCain.[35] Obama was also able to carry Boone County, home to the large college town of Columbia (Missouri's fifth-largest city and home of the state's flagship University of Missouri campus), and Jefferson County, which consists of the southern St. Louis suburbs such as Arnold and Festus. George W. Bush narrowly won Jefferson County in 2004 over John Kerry.

However, Obama was unable to substantially improve on Kerry's performance in rural Missouri, which is largely responsible for Missouri's Republican tilt. During the 2008 Missouri Democratic Primary, every rural county in Missouri (with the exception of Nodaway County, home of Northwest Missouri State University in Maryville in Northwestern Missouri), strongly backed Hillary Clinton, often by more than two-to-one margins. Many, if not all, of these counties that Clinton won in the Missouri Primary ended up voting for McCain in the general election. A number of these counties are ancestrally Democratic. However, these counties are very similar in character to Yellow Dog Democrat areas in neighboring Tennessee, Arkansas and Oklahoma. The Democrats in these areas are nowhere near as liberal as their counterparts in St. Louis and Kansas City, and much like their counterparts in neighboring Tennessee and Arkansas, had become increasingly willing to support Republicans at the national level.

Obama lost by an almost two-to-one margin in Southwest Missouri, a Republican stronghold for the better part of a century. This region is entrenched in the Bible Belt and embedded with deep pockets of social conservatives that includes Springfield and Joplin. Even Bill Clinton could not win Southwest Missouri in 1992 despite the fact that he won the state by double digits. Rural Northern Missouri voted against Obama by a three-to-two margin; this region warmly supported Bill Clinton in both of his bids. Obama also lost much of rural Southeast Missouri. Unlike Northern and Southwest Missouri, Southeast Missouri, which strongly backed Bill Clinton both times, is more Democratic at the local and state levels. The region takes in the Lead Belt, the Bootheel and the Ozark Plateau and includes the largest city of Cape Girardeau, a booming college town but also a conservative, upper-middle class community that votes overwhelmingly Republican. Southeast Missouri is socially conservative but economically liberal, consistently electing Democrats at the local and state levels. While Obama ran even in the area southwest of St. Louis, he did worse than John Kerry in the Bootheel.[35] Obama was, however, able to pick up two counties in Southeast Missouri: Washington County (by a margin of five votes) and Iron County. Both counties are predominantly rural and White but are some of the most impoverished counties in the state that are controlled by Democrats at the local and state levels. Both counties gave Hillary Clinton over 70% of the vote in the Missouri Primary as well.

Obama was allowed to request a recount under state law since preliminary results showed a difference of less than 1% of the votes. The request would have had to be granted by the state.[36] However, since Obama already won the election, there had been no indications to suggest that he would request a recount. He ultimately did not request one.

During the same election, Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon defeated U.S. Representative Kenny Hulshof in a landslide for the Governor's Mansion. Incumbent Republican Governor Matt Blunt did not seek a second term. Nixon performed extremely well in rural Missouri and clinched 58.40% of the total statewide vote compared to Hulshof's 39.49% to become Governor of Missouri. Republicans were, however, able to hold on to the U.S. House seat in Missouri's 9th Congressional District that was vacated by Hulshof in his unsuccessful gubernatorial bid. Republican Blaine Luetkemeyer narrowly defeated Democrat Judy Baker by less than 3 percentage points, in large part due to McCain winning it by 11 points. At the state level, Democrats picked up three seats in the Missouri House of Representatives but Republicans expanded their majority in the Missouri Senate, picking up three seats here. Furthermore, upon the 2008 election, Democrats control all statewide offices but one – Lieutenant Governor Peter Kinder is a Republican. Democrats held on to the office of Attorney General that was vacated by Governor Jay Nixon; Democrat Chris Koster defeated Republican Mike Gibbons 52.83% to 47.17%. Democrats also picked up the office of State Treasurer that was vacated by Republican Sarah Steelman in her unsuccessful bid for the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Democrat Clint Zweifel defeated Republican Brad Lager 50.47% to 47.14%.

Results

United States presidential election in Missouri, 2008 [37]
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,445,814 49.36% 11
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 1,441,911 49.23% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 17,813 0.61% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 11,386 0.39% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 8,201 0.28% 0
Write-ins Write-ins 3,906 0.13% 0
Green (write-in) Cynthia McKinney Rosa Clemente 80 0.00% 0
Totals 2,929,111 100.00% 11
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 66.1%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Total
Adair49.3%5,73550.7%5,89111,626
Andrew38.8%3,34561.2%5,2798,624
Atchison34.1%1,00065.9%1,9362,936
Audrain41.8%4,43458.2%6,16710,601
Barry32.2%4,63067.8%9,75814,388
Barton24.8%1,45575.2%4,4145,869
Bates40.4%3,27159.6%4,8338,104
Benton38.7%3,62961.3%5,7599,388
Bollinger29.8%1,69070.2%3,9725,662
Boone56.1%47,06243.9%36,84983,911
Buchanan50.1%19,16449.9%19,11038,274
Butler31.0%5,31669.0%11,80517,121
Caldwell40.6%1,81459.4%2,6544,468
Callaway40.8%7,85059.2%11,38919,239
Camden35.6%7,77364.4%14,07421,847
Cape Girardeau33.0%12,20867.0%24,76836,976
Carroll34.2%1,53565.8%2,9554,490
Carter34.8%98465.2%1,8402,824
Cass40.1%19,84459.9%29,69549,539
Cedar32.9%2,06067.1%4,1946,254
Chariton43.5%1,79956.5%2,3394,138
Christian31.9%11,88368.1%25,38237,265
Clark46.9%1,57253.1%1,7823,354
Clay49.7%53,76150.3%54,516108,277
Clinton44.3%4,54555.7%5,70910,254
Cole36.4%13,95963.6%24,38538,344
Cooper37.9%2,99662.1%4,9027,898
Crawford39.4%3,91160.6%6,0079,918
Dade29.2%1,18470.8%2,8644,048
Dallas35.2%2,65664.8%4,8957,551
Daviess38.2%1,40061.8%2,2633,663
DeKalb36.9%1,69263.1%2,8894,581
Dent30.6%2,05669.4%4,6556,711
Douglas32.7%2,14067.3%4,4056,545
Dunklin39.2%4,54060.8%7,04411,584
Franklin43.7%21,25656.3%27,35548,611
Gasconade37.8%2,89962.2%4,7637,662
Gentry38.6%1,23561.4%1,9643,199
Greene42.0%56,18158.0%77,683133,864
Grundy34.5%1,58065.5%3,0064,586
Harrison33.9%1,28766.1%2,5123,799
Henry44.4%4,86955.6%6,09510,964
Hickory43.2%2,17156.8%2,8505,021
Holt30.9%80269.1%1,7942,596
Howard42.9%2,03657.1%2,7084,744
Howell34.3%5,73665.7%10,98216,718
Iron51.4%2,21348.6%2,0904,303
Jackson62.8%210,82437.2%124,687335,511
Jasper33.2%15,73066.8%31,66747,397
Jefferson51.3%53,46748.7%50,804104,271
Johnson43.8%9,48056.2%12,18321,663
Knox38.5%75961.5%1,2121,971
Laclede32.4%5,21867.6%10,87516,093
Lafayette42.2%6,90257.8%9,44216,344
Lawrence31.2%5,09768.8%11,26316,360
Lewis41.5%1,83758.5%2,5944,431
Lincoln44.2%10,23455.8%12,92423,158
Linn45.7%2,63854.3%3,1405,778
Livingston37.9%2,43562.1%3,9936,428
Macon37.8%2,78462.2%4,5867,370
Madison41.3%2,04258.7%2,8974,939
Maries35.9%1,59964.1%2,8534,452
Marion37.9%4,70362.1%7,70512,408
McDonald30.9%2,45469.1%5,4997,953
Mercer30.7%51969.3%1,1691,688
Miller31.3%3,55368.7%7,79711,350
Mississippi42.5%2,24757.5%3,0345,281
Moniteau31.8%2,08468.2%4,4676,551
Monroe40.2%1,70359.8%2,5334,236
Montgomery40.6%2,34759.4%3,4285,775
Morgan39.5%3,56560.5%5,4519,016
New Madrid42.3%3,37057.7%4,5937,963
Newton29.7%7,45070.3%17,63725,087
Nodaway44.7%4,49355.3%5,56810,061
Oregon40.6%1,81159.4%2,6524,463
Osage27.4%1,90772.6%5,0626,969
Ozark36.3%1,66163.7%2,9184,579
Pemiscot43.4%3,02956.6%3,9546,983
Perry35.2%3,00564.8%5,5278,532
Pettis38.6%6,93261.4%11,01817,950
Phelps38.7%7,39461.3%11,70619,100
Pike45.0%3,48755.0%4,2687,755
Platte46.7%21,45953.3%24,46045,919
Polk33.7%4,55366.3%8,95613,509
Pulaski35.5%5,24964.5%9,55214,801
Putnam30.4%69569.6%1,5912,286
Ralls40.6%2,04159.4%2,9875,028
Randolph38.2%3,98461.8%6,45710,441
Ray48.4%5,24151.6%5,59310,834
Reynolds44.3%1,41755.7%1,7803,197
Ripley34.5%1,79565.5%3,4075,202
Saline48.7%4,71251.3%4,9629,674
Schuyler40.5%77559.5%1,1391,914
Scotland38.8%79361.2%1,2492,042
Scott35.1%6,25864.9%11,56317,821
Shannon44.1%1,63755.9%2,0753,712
Shelby34.0%1,11466.0%2,1663,280
St. Charles45.1%84,18354.9%102,550186,733
St. Clair38.8%1,88661.2%2,9814,867
St. Francois47.7%11,54052.3%12,66024,200
St. Louis City84.4%132,92515.6%24,662157,587
St. Louis County60.0%333,12340.0%221,705554,828
Ste. Genevieve57.2%4,97942.8%3,7328,711
Stoddard29.8%3,89970.2%9,17213,071
Stone31.1%5,02968.9%11,14716,176
Sullivan42.2%1,17357.8%1,6072,780
Taney31.2%6,68368.8%14,73621,419
Texas32.1%3,41067.9%7,21510,625
Vernon38.8%3,38161.2%5,3348,715
Warren43.6%6,70556.4%8,67515,380
Washington50.0%4,71150.0%4,7069,417
Wayne37.2%2,24362.8%3,7846,027
Webster35.3%5,68564.7%10,43116,116
Worth37.7%42762.3%7071,134
Wright30.7%2,55769.3%5,7848,341

By congressional district

John McCain carried six of the state’s nine congressional districts, including one district held by a Democrat.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 19.38% 79.70% William Lacy Clay, Jr.
2nd 54.98% 44.04% Todd Akin
3rd 39.06% 59.50% Russ Carnahan
4th 60.58% 37.87% Ike Skelton
5th 35.45% 63.47% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 53.58% 44.67% Sam Graves
7th 63.07% 35.39% Roy Blunt
8th 61.92% 36.42% Jo Ann Emerson
9th 54.77% 43.66% Kenny Hulshof (110th Congress)
Blaine Luetkemeyer (111th Congress)

Electors

Technically the voters of Missouri cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Missouri is allocated 11 electors because it has nine congressional districts and two senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[38] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[39]

  1. Willis Corbett
  2. Scott Dickenson
  3. Robert Haul
  4. Ronny Margason
  5. Cathy Owens
  6. Ron Muck
  7. Gene Hall
  8. R. Mellene Schudy
  9. Nadine Thurman
  10. Paul Nahon
  11. Jerry Dowell

References

  1. ↑ "Missouri: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved April 6, 2009.
  2. ↑ Powell, Michael; Michael Cooper (October 18, 2008). "Day's Campaigning Shows an Inverted Political Plane". New York Times. Retrieved April 7, 2009.
  3. 1 2 3 U.S. President And Vice President from the website of the Missouri Secretary of State
  4. ↑ D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries
  5. ↑ Presidential | The Cook Political Report Archived May 5, 2015, at the Wayback Machine.
  6. ↑ Vote 2008 – The Takeaway – Track the Electoral College vote predictions Archived April 22, 2009, at the Wayback Machine.
  7. ↑ Election Projection: 2008 Elections – Polls, Projections, Results
  8. ↑ Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily
  9. 1 2 3 Based on Takeaway
  10. ↑ POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map – POLITICO.com
  11. ↑ RealClearPolitics – Electoral Map
  12. ↑
  13. ↑ CQ Politics | CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008 Archived October 29, 2008, at the Wayback Machine.
  14. ↑ "Electoral College Map". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  15. ↑ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker – CNN.com Blogs". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Winning the Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  17. ↑ roadto270
  18. ↑ Election 2008: Electoral College Update – Rasmussen Reports™
  19. ↑ Election 2008 Polls – Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  20. ↑ Presidential Campaign Finance
  21. ↑ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  22. ↑ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  23. ↑ McCain visits Springfield today | News-Leader.com | Springfield News-Leader
  24. ↑ John McCain 2008 – John McCain for President
  25. 1 2 kwmu NewsRoom
  26. ↑ Political Fix » Blog Archive » Obama planning to campaign two days in Missouri
  27. ↑ http://www.kansascity.com/105/story/686290.html
  28. ↑ St. Louis Ticket Broker | St Louis Cardinals & St Louis Blues Tickets | Mizzou Football Tickets from The Ticket Guys
  29. ↑ http://abclocal.go.com/wls/story?section=news/politics&id=6249360
  30. ↑ The Maneater – Obama revs up MU
  31. ↑ Obama visits MU – Columbia Missourian
  32. ↑ http://ozarksfirst.com/content/fulltext/?cid=77101
  33. ↑ Carnahan Announces Record Number of Missourians Cast Ballots in General Election from the website of the Missouri Secretary of State
  34. ↑ "McCain wins Missouri; State's streak over!". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  35. 1 2 "Election Results 2008". New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved April 7, 2009.
  36. ↑ Recount Law In Missouri, a February 2008 blog entry from The Atlantic by associate editor Marc Ambinder
  37. ↑ "Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections 2008- Missouri". Retrieved January 11, 2013.
  38. ↑ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
  39. ↑ Presidential Electors 2008, MO Republican Party

See also

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