United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2014
See also: Arkansas elections, 2014
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The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. Cotton defeated Pryor by a wider-than-expected margin in the general election; most outlets called the race for Cotton within half an hour after the polls closed. This marks the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans hold both Senate seats in Arkansas, and where the Arkansas congressional delegation is entirely Republican.
Background
Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[1] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent Senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were successfully re-elected.[2]
Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen have been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[3] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana’s Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[4]
Democratic primary
Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Pryor, incumbent U.S. Senator[5]
Declined
- Bobby Tullis, former State Representative[6]
Republican primary
Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.
Candidates
Declared
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Representative[7]
Declined
- Rick Crawford, U.S. Representative[8]
- Mark Darr, Lieutenant Governor of Arkansas[9]
- Timothy Griffin, U.S. Representative[10]
- Steve Womack, U.S. Representative[11]
Third parties
Candidates
Declared
- Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive[12]
- Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the State House in 2010[12]
General election
Endorsements
| Tom Cotton |
|---|
|
| Mark Pryor |
|---|
|
Fundraising
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Pryor (D) | $10,428,246 | $12,034,784 | $364,653 |
| Tom Cotton (R) | $7,557,443 | $6,411,763 | $1,885,435 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mark Pryor (D) |
Tom Cotton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Research Associates | October 30–November 1, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 45% | 43% | 4%[19] | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 30–November 1, 2014 | 1,092 | ± 3% | 41% | 49% | 4%[19] | 5% |
| 45% | 51% | — | 4% | ||||
| Rasmussen Reports | October 27–29, 2014 | 967 | ± 3% | 44% | 51% | 4% | 2% |
| Issues & Answers Network | October 21–27, 2014 | 568 | ± 4.1% | 36% | 49% | — | 15% |
| Opinion Research Associates | October 25–26, 2014 | 401 | ± 5% | 45% | 44% | 2%[20] | 10% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,567 | ± 4% | 42% | 47% | 1% | 10% |
| NBC News/Marist | October 19–23, 2014 | 621 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 6%[21] | 7% |
| 971 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 6%[21] | 9% | ||
| Talk Business/Hendrix | October 15–16, 2014 | 2,075 | ± 2.2% | 40.5% | 49% | 4.5%[22] | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 13–15, 2014 | 940 | ± 3% | 44% | 47% | 4% | 5% |
| Fox News | October 4–7, 2014 | 707 | ± 3.5% | 39% | 46% | 5%[23] | 11% |
| Opinion Research Associates | October 1–5, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 45% | 42% | 5% | 9% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20–October 1, 2014 | 1,991 | ± 2% | 41% | 45% | 1% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 24–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 47% | 5% | 8% |
| Suffolk | September 20–23, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 44.8% | 43% | 5.4%[24] | 6.8% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 18–21, 2014 | 1,453 | ± 2.6% | 38% | 43% | 6%[25] | 13% |
| 39% | 45% | — | 15% | ||||
| Hickman Analytics | September 13–18, 2014 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% |
| Gravis Marketing | September 8–11, 2014 | 902 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | 2%[26] | 8% |
| Answers Unlimited | September 7–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 4%[27] | 8% |
| NBC News/Marist | September 2–4, 2014 | 639 LV | ± 3.9% | 40% | 45% | 6%[21] | 9% |
| 1,068 RV | ± 3% | 41% | 41% | 8%[28] | 11% | ||
| Hickman Analytics | August 26–September 3, 2014 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| CNN/ORC International | August 28–September 2, 2014 | 523 LV | ± 4.5% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% |
| 839 RV | ± 3.5% | 47% | 38% | — | 14% | ||
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18–September 2, 2014 | 1,572 | ± 3% | 39% | 43% | 2% | 16% |
| ccAdvertising | August 31–September 1, 2014 | 1,735 | ± ? | 29% | 37% | — | 34% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 25–26, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 43% | 6% | 6% |
| Opinion Research Associates | August 6–14, 2014 | 414 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 41% | 4%[27] | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | August 1–3, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 3% | 39% | 41% | 7%[29] | 14% |
| 41% | 43% | — | 16% | ||||
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | July 22–25, 2014 | 1,780 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 44% | 7%[30] | 7% |
| Anzalone Liszt Grove Research | July 20–24, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% |
| CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,628 | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
| Gravis Marketing | July 7–8, 2014 | 987 | ± 3% | 44% | 51% | 5%[26] | — |
| Impact Management Group | June 29, 2014 | 1290 | ± 2.72% | 43% | 47% | — | 10% |
| Magellan Strategies | June 4–5, 2014 | 755 | ± 3.57% | 45% | 49% | 2% | 4% |
| Fabrizio Lee | June 3–5, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 43% | 51% | — | 5% |
| Public Opinion Strategies | May 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.39% | 41% | 46% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 27–28, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | 4% | 6% |
| NBC News/Marist | April 30–May 4, 2014 | 876 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 25–27, 2014 | 840 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 42% | — | 16% |
| Magellan Strategies | April 14–15, 2014 | 857 | ± 3.35% | 43% | 46% | 4% | 7% |
| New York Times/Kaiser Family | April 8–15, 2014 | 857 | ± 4% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 15% |
| Harper Polling | April 9–10, 2014 | 522 | ± 4.29% | 39% | 39% | — | 22% |
| Opinion Research Associates | April 1–8, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 48% | 38% | — | 8% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | April 3–4, 2014 | 1,068 | ± 3% | 45.5% | 42.5% | 4%[27] | 8% |
| Anzalone Lizst Grove Research | March 27–April 2, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% |
| Hickman Analytics | February 17–20, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 39% | 41% | 8% | 12% |
| 42% | 51% | — | 8% | ||||
| Impact Management Group | February 10, 2014 | 1,202 | ± 2.83% | 42% | 46% | — | 13% |
| Harper Polling | January 26–27, 2014 | 533 | ± 4.24% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 4–5, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 45% | 5% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling | December 13–15, 2013 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% |
| Polling Company/WomanTrend | December 6–7, 2013 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 48% | — | 9% |
| Impact Management Group | October 24, 2013 | 911 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | — | 18% |
| University of Arkansas | October 10–17, 2013 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 34% | 32% | — | 34% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 14–15, 2013 | 955 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 41% | — | 15% |
| Talk Business/Hendrix College | October 8, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 42% | 41% | — | 17% |
| Harper Polling | September 24–26, 2013 | 622 | ± 3.93% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
| Global Strategy Group | August 26–29, 2013 | 501 | ± ?% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% |
| Polling Company/WomanTrend | August 6–7, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% |
| Harper Polling | August 4–5, 2013 | 587 | ± 4.04% | 41% | 43% | — | 16% |
| On Message Inc. | July 29–30, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 44% | — | 14% |
| Clark Research | July 23–27, 2013 | 729 | ± 4% | 43% | 35% | — | 21% |
| Basswood Research | June 22–23, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 40% | — | 19% |
| Basswood Research | March 16–17, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 35% | 43% | — | 22% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Cotton | 478,819 | 56.5 | |
| Democratic | Mark Pryor (Incumbent) | 334,174 | 39.43 | |
| Libertarian | Nathan LaFrance | 17,210 | 2.03 | |
| Green | Mark Swaney | 16,797 | 1.98 | |
| Write-ins | Others | 505 | 0.06 | |
| Majority | 144,645 | 17.07% | ||
| Total votes | 847,505 | 100 | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | ||||
See also
References
- ↑ "Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views". Green Party Watch. 7 November 2008. Retrieved 4 September 2010.
- ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (August 5, 2013). "Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014". Smart Politics.
- ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (March 20, 2013). "Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats?". Smart Politics.
- ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
- ↑ "Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014". Arkansas Times. April 19, 2012.
- ↑ "D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas". Natural State Report. July 31, 2013.
- ↑ Glueck, Katie (31 July 2013). "Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate". Politico.
- ↑ Daniels, Alex; Frago, Charlie (November 12, 2012). "Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14". Arkansas Online.
- ↑ DeMillo, Andrew (August 13, 2013). "Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat". Arkansas Business. Associated Press.
- ↑ Archived December 3, 2012, at the Wayback Machine.
- 1 2 3 Saylor, Ryan (August 7, 2013). "Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape". Talk Business Arkansas. Retrieved August 13, 2013.
- 1 2 "Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas". sfgate.com. March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
- ↑ Trygstad, Kyle. "Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger". Roll Call. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
- ↑ Leary, Alex. "Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race". Tampa Bay Times. Retrieved 20 September 2013.
- ↑ Kubin, Jacquie. "Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders". The Washington Times. Retrieved 19 September 2013.
- ↑ "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices. April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014.
- ↑ "Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton". Time Record Online Edition. June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
- ↑ Brantley, Max (April 25, 2014). "UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
- 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
- ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
- 1 2 3 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
- ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2.5%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
- ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
- ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2.8%, Mark Swaney (G) 2.6%
- ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
- 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L)
- 1 2 3 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
- ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
- ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
- ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
- ↑ "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014.
External links
- U.S. Senate elections in Arkansas, 2014 at Ballotpedia
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
- Arkansas Senate debate excerpts, OnTheIssues.org
- Mark Pryor (D) for U.S. Senate
- Tom Cotton (R) for U.S. Senate
- Nathan LaFrance (L) for U.S. Senate
- Mark Swaney (G) for U.S. Senate
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