United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2014

United States Senate election in Mississippi, 2014
Mississippi
November 4, 2014 (2014-11-04)
 
Nominee Thad Cochran Travis Childers
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 378,481 239,439
Percentage 59.9% 37.9%

County results
U.S. Senator before election

Thad Cochran
Republican

 Elected U.S. Senator

Thad Cochran
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Mississippi took place on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran, first elected in 1978, who was seeking a seventh term, [1] won with 60% of the vote, defeating Democrat Travis Childers, a former Congressman, who received 38%.

Background

Thad Cochran was first elected to the Senate with a plurality of the vote in a three-way race in 1978. He was re-elected with at least 61% of the vote in 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, and 2008.

Cochran was the last incumbent Senator up for re-election in 2014 to declare his plans as to whether he would run for re-election; that caused widespread speculation that he would retire.[2][3] Despite being urged to declare his intentions, Cochran said in August 2013, "I don’t have a fixed date. But [I will decide] by the end of the year. You don’t want to rush into these things."[2] On November 12, he announced that he would reveal his plans by the end of the month.[4] On December 6, it was confirmed that he would be running for re-election.[1]

Cochran's fundraising ability, powerful Senate committee assignments, and very high approval ratings meant that he was dubbed "unbeatable".[2] Mississippi Democratic Party Chairman Rickey Cole said that "in the very likely event that he does [run], we don't foresee a major Democratic challenger emerging."[5] Had he chosen to retire, a "stampede" was predicted in the Republican primary[6] and Democrats believed that a "properly positioned" candidate could have been competitive in the general election.[2]

Republican primary

The United States Senate Republican primary election in Mississippi, 2014 took place on June 3, 2014. Incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran, who has served in the position since 1978, ran for re-election to a seventh term.[1] He is being challenged by State Senator Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party supporter, and Thomas Carey; for the Republican nomination. During the primary election, Senator Cochran and State Senator McDaniel received 49% and 49.5% of the vote respectively. Since no candidate received over 50%, there was a runoff to determine the Republican nominee on June 24, 2014.

Cochran's campaign invited Democrats to vote in the Republican primary and defeated McDaniel in the run-off election.[7][8] In addition, Cochran-affiliated super PACs used racially charged themes in their primary ads, particularly the super PAC "All Citizens for Mississippi", which was funded(according to these F.E.C. filings)[9][10] by a super PAC affiliated with Former Governor Haley Barbour.[11]

Background and Primary Campaign

Thad Cochran was first elected to the Senate with a plurality of the vote in a three-way race in 1978. He has been re-elected with at least 61% of the vote ever since, in 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002 and 2008. Cochran's fundraising ability, powerful Senate committee assignments and very high approval ratings mean that he was dubbed "unbeatable".[2]

However, State Senator Chris McDaniel, a Tea Party supporter, declared his candidacy for the seat on October 17, 2013.[12] He was immediately endorsed by the Club for Growth and Jim DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund. McDaniel was initially reported to have no chance of beating Cochran in the primary,[2] as summed up by the Jackson Free Press, who remarked that if McDaniel faced Cochran, it would be the "beginning of [the] end of [his] political career".[13] Republican lobbyist Henry Barbour, the nephew of former Governor Haley Barbour, said: "I think he will get his head handed to him, and that will be what he deserves. [But] it's a free country."[14] Rather, McDaniel was believed to have declared his candidacy in the hope that Cochran didn't run, so that he could get "first crack" at the support of Tea Party groups and donors ahead of a competitive primary.[13]

Although the race was initially considered uncompetitive, McDaniel proved to be a serious challenger. Polling showed the lead swinging between the two of them and it is considered to be a "50%-50% race".[15]

The race is considered to be a marquee establishment-versus-Tea Party fight and significant because Mississippi is the poorest state and Cochran's seniority and appropriating skills contrasts with the junior status of the rest of the state's congressional delegation.[16] McDaniel has been endorsed by politicians including Sarah Palin and Rick Santorum and organisations including Citizens United, Club for Growth, FreedomWorks, Madison Project, National Association for Gun Rights, Senate Conservatives Fund and Tea Party Express. By contrast, the Republican establishment has rallied around Cochran, who has also been endorsed by the National Rifle Association and National Right to Life.

The race has been described as a "nasty" one,[17] full of "bizarre" twists.[18] McDaniel's campaign has attacked Cochran for being "an out-of-touch, big-spending Washington insider" and Cochran's has replied that "McDaniel’s voting record in the state Senate does not match his conservative rhetoric." Both sides have accused the other of distortions and outright lies.[19]

Cochran has run on his incumbency, seniority and the fact that he would become the Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee if the Republicans took back control of the Senate.[20][21] In addition to ideological differences, the race has also highlighted geographic divides in the state Republican Party.[22][23]

Tea Party Blogger Scandal

A scandal emerged when a supporter of McDaniel allegedly entered a nursing home where Cochran's bedridden wife was living and took pictures of her.[17] He posted them as part of a video to his blog, intending to advance the rumour that Cochran is having affairs while his wife was receiving care.[19][24] Four people have been arrested in connection with the incident.[19]

The connection to the McDaniel campaign is in dispute. One of the arrested included McDaniel ally Mark Mayfield, who is the vice chairman of the state's Tea Party. McDaniel and his campaign have not yet been officially "cleared" of a connection to the incident, according to Madison County District Attorney Michael Guest.[25]

Race Card Scandal

External image
The Tea Party Intends To Prevent You From Voting. Several ads such as this one invoked or leveraged racist themes. Several ads of a similar nature were distributed via Twitter and resulted in a request for censure in front of the National GOP. Photo provided via The Hill (newspaper).[26][27]

A second scandal emerged during the primary where racially insensitive ads were used as a part of the campaign to help Cochran win, using such "code words" as "food stamps".[28][29] Charges first surfaced [30] that a small group of elderly Democrat Women activists calling themselves Citizens for Progress were behind the controversy, but later facts as well as money trails show [31] that money has exchanged hands to Citizens for Progress multiple times,[32] from Mississippi Conservatives PAC.

After the fallout of the primary election, Ed Martin, chairman of the Missouri Republican Party, wrote an op-ed calling for the censure of Henry Barbour for his role in the funding [33] of race-based ads, as well as the censure of "any Republicans who were involved in the racist ads." [34] He also called to censure Barbour at an RNC summer meeting in Chicago.[35] Henry Barbour is the nephew of former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour.

Senator Ted Cruz appeared on the Mark Levin Show to discuss the Mississippi Primary. He called for an investigation,[36] saying that "the ads they ran were racially-charged false attacks".[37]

Primary Election Results

The presence of a third candidate, Thomas Carey, opened the possibility of neither Cochran nor McDaniel winning a majority.[17] When the votes were counted, this is exactly what occurred: no candidate won more than 50% of the vote, so a runoff election between McDaniel and Cochran was required, and was held on June 24, 2014.[38] A runoff was generally seen as a positive development for Chris McDaniel, who is seen as having an advantage.[39][40]

Republican primary results[41]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chris McDaniel 157,733 49.5
Republican Thad Cochran (Incumbent) 156,315 49.0
Republican Thomas Carey 4,854 1.5
Total votes 318,902 100

Following the election, the Hinds County Sheriff’s Office announced it was investigating three McDaniel supporters who were locked inside the local courthouse, where primary ballots were held, on election night.[42]

Runoff Election

The runoff was scheduled for June 24, 2014, exactly three weeks after the first primary election. Despite trailing in most of the polls,[43] Cochran won the race with 51% of the vote compared to McDaniel's 49%. McDaniel once again won big in his native Pine Belt and in the heavily populated suburban Memphis DeSoto County. Cochran, however, was able to get a surge in votes from African-Americans who took advantage of a mixed primary. Many credited Cochran's win to the increase in black voters in the runoff. Cochran won by a net 3,532 votes in the most Democratic, African-American precincts in Hinds County (largest county in the state, and home of Jackson). These precincts made up nearly half of Cochran's margin of victory[44]

Republican primary runoff results[45]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Thad Cochran (Incumbent) 194,932 51.0 +2.0
Republican Chris McDaniel 187,265 49.0 -0.5
Total votes 382,197 100.00

Endorsements

Democratic primary

Former Congressman Travis Childers stated that he was interested in running, particularly if Thad Cochran retired.[64] With Cochran facing a competitive primary, Childers announced in February 2014 that he was running.[65] Childers won the Democratic primary with 74% of the vote.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Democratic primary results[73]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Travis Childers 63,548 74
Democratic Bill Marcy 10,361 12.1
Democratic William Compton 8,465 9.9
Democratic Jonathan Rawl 3,492 4.1
Total votes 85,866 100

General election

Campaign

The Democratic nominee, Travis Childers described himself as a "moderate to conservative" Democrat, highlighting his vote against the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act and his opposition to new gun control measures, abortion and same-sex marriage.[74]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered		 Sample
size		 Margin of
error		 Thad
Cochran (R)		 Travis
Childers (D)		 Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 654 ± 7% 50% 28% 2% 20%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 2014 826 ± 4% 46% 35% 3% 16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 2014 976 ± 4% 46% 31% 9% 15%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 850 ± 5.7% 47% 32% 17% 5%
Public Policy Polling July 10–13, 2014 691 ± 3.7% 40% 24% 5%[75] 31%
41% 26% — 33%
Rasmussen Reports June 25–26, 2014 750 ± 4% 46% 34% 10% 9%
Rasmussen Reports March 26–29, 2014 750 ± 4% 48% 31% 9% 12%
Public Policy Polling November 15–17, 2013 502 ± 4.4% 50% 33% — 17%

Results

Mississippi's US senate election, 2014[76]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Thad Cochran (Incumbent) 378,481 59.90% -1.54%
Democratic Travis Childers 239,439 37.89% -0.67%
Reform Shawn O'Hara 13,938 2.21% +2.21%
Total votes 631,858 100%
Republican hold Swing {{{swing}}}

See also

References

  1. 1 2 3 "Cochran to Seek Re-Election in Mississippi". Roll Call. December 6, 2013. Retrieved December 6, 2013.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Mississippi Senate race 2014: Guessing game over Thad Cochran run". Politico. August 8, 2013. Retrieved August 9, 2013.
  3. ↑ Raju, Manu (May 20, 2013). "Thad Cochran: Too early on 2014". politico.com.
  4. ↑ Cahn, Emily (November 12, 2013). "Cochran To Reveal Future Plans By End of the Month". Roll Call.
  5. ↑ "AP analysis: No smooth road for U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran if he runs". blog.gulflive.com. October 27, 2013.
  6. 1 2 "Speculation continues over Cochran's seat in the U.S. Senate: If a Senate seat opens, expect a stampede". Mississippi PEP. July 23, 2012. Retrieved July 22, 2013.
  7. ↑ Todd, Chuck (June 4, 2014). "Mississippi Runoff Bad News for Thad Cochran". NBCNews.com. New York City: NBCUniversal. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  8. ↑ Burns, Alexander (24 June 2014). "COCHRAN WINS". Politico. Retrieved 25 June 2014.
  9. ↑ "REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 15, 2014.
  10. ↑ "REPORT OF RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS" (PDF). Federal Election Commission. October 15, 2014.
  11. ↑ Erickson, Erick (July 15, 2014). "CONFIRMED: Senate Republican Leaders Paid for Attacks Against Conservatives". RedState.com. Retrieved August 29, 2014.
  12. ↑ Abby Livingston (October 17, 2013). "Tea Party Candidate Challenges Thad Cochran". Roll Call. Retrieved October 17, 2013.
  13. 1 2 R.L. Nave (October 15, 2012). "Sen. Chris McDaniel to Announce Beginning of End of Political Career". Jackson Free Press. Retrieved October 17, 2013.
  14. ↑ Abby Livingston (September 25, 2012). "Mississippi Republicans Wait for Cochran's Decision". Roll Call. Retrieved November 12, 2013.
  15. ↑ "Could a Tea Party Win in Mississippi Change the 2014 Math?". NBC News. June 3, 2014. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  16. ↑ Abby Livingston (December 26, 2012). "Most Fascinating Races of 2014: Mississippi Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved December 31, 2013.
  17. 1 2 3 Alexandra Jaffe (June 3, 2014). "Biggest Super Tuesday casualty?". The Hill. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  18. ↑ Deborah Barfield Berry (June 2, 2014). "Miss. voters ready for end to Senate primary". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  19. 1 2 3 Bobby Harrison (June 1, 2014). "Bruising Senate battle nears finish". DJournal. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  20. ↑ Kyle Trygstad (June 3, 2014). "Thad Cochran Runs on Incumbency, Appropriations in GOP Primary". DJournal. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  21. ↑ Janet Hook (June 3, 2014). "Will Mississippi End Its Love Affair With Seniority?". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  22. ↑ Stuart Rothenberg (June 3, 2014). "Thad Cochran's Mississippi". Roll Call. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  23. ↑ Nate Cohn (June 2, 2014). "Mississippi Primary Fight Is One of Geography as Well as Ideology". The New York Times. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  24. ↑ Brett Logiurato (May 20, 2014). "This Is The Single Nastiest Campaign Fight In America". Business Insider. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  25. ↑ OHLHEISER, ABBY. "The Bizarre Scandal That Could Tear Apart the Tea Party's Best Hope for a Primary Win". The Wire. The Wire. Retrieved 8 June 2014.
  26. ↑ "Cochran backer stands by racially tinged Mississippi ads.".
  27. ↑ "Who Paid for Race-Baiting Flier in Mississippi?". The American Spectator. Retrieved 2015-02-11.
  28. ↑ Fund, John (2014-07-25). "The Flier That Got Thad Cochran Elected?". National Review. Retrieved 2014-08-18.
  29. ↑ "The Tea Party Intends to prevent you from VOTING".
  30. ↑ Drucker, David (2014-08-04). "Democratic activists were behind controversial Klan ads in Mississippi". Washington Examiner.Com. Retrieved 2014-08-07.
  31. ↑ Gardiner, Aaron (2014-08-06). "No, the Racist Mississippi Primary Ads Weren't Just a Cabal of Elderly Democrat Women". RedState.Com. Retrieved 2014-08-07.
  32. ↑ Hall, Sam (2014-08-05). "Harris denies anyone tied to Cochran involved in KKK ads". ClarionLedger.Com. Retrieved 2014-08-07.
  33. ↑ Johnson, Eliana (2014-07-18). "The Barbour Machine's Mississippi Ad War". National Review. Retrieved 2014-08-22.
  34. ↑ "Why I'm Moving To Censure Henry Barbour In The RNC Over Race-Baiting Ads". Daily Caller. 8 August 2014. Retrieved 22 August 2014.
  35. ↑ "Cochran backer stands by racially tinged Mississippi ads". The Hill. 8 August 2014. Retrieved 22 August 2014.
  36. ↑ "Ted Cruz: We Need An Investigation Into the Mississippi Race". The Mark Levin Show. 7 July 2014. Retrieved 29 August 2014.
  37. ↑ Sullivan, Sean (2014-07-25). "Ted Cruz slams 'D.C. machine' over Mississippi runoff, wants voter-fraud investigation". Washington Post. Retrieved 2014-08-27.
  38. ↑ Martin, Jonathan (June 4, 2014). "Mississippi's G.O.P. Senate Primary Headed to a Runoff". New York Times. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  39. ↑ ENTEN, HARRY. "Is There a Favorite in the Republican Runoff For Senate in Mississippi?". FiveThirtyEight. Five Thirty Eight. Retrieved 8 June 2014.
  40. ↑ Clancy, Dean. "The Tea Party Will Win One in Mississippi". US News and World Report. US News and World Report. Retrieved 8 June 2014.
  41. ↑ "2014 Republican Primary Results". Secretary of State of Mississippi. June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 9, 2014.
  42. ↑ Sarlin, Benjy. "Sheriff investigates Chris McDaniel aide after election-night incident". MSNBC. Retrieved 8 June 2014.
  43. ↑ "polling data". Real Clear Politics. June 24, 2014. Retrieved February 22, 2015.
  44. ↑ "precinct data". New York Times. July 9, 2014. Retrieved February 22, 2015..
  45. ↑ "2014 Republican Primary Runoff Results". Secretary of State of Mississippi. July 7, 2014. Retrieved July 9, 2014.
  46. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Mississippi leaders react to Thad Cochran's decision to seek seventh term in U.S. Senate". GulfLive.com. December 6, 2013. Retrieved December 6, 2013.
  47. ↑ "BREAKING: Cochran says he will 'run hard and be successful'". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. December 6, 2013. Retrieved February 11, 2014.
  48. ↑ "Olympia's List". Olympia's List. Retrieved June 1, 2016.
  49. ↑ http://onpolitics.usatoday.com/2014/03/25/nra-guns-thad-cochran-endorsement-mcdaniel/
  50. ↑ http://www.nrlc.org/communications/releases/2014/release052114/
  51. ↑ http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/03/13/Sarah-Palin-Endorses-Chris-McDaniel-for-Senate-in-Mississippi
  52. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Eight Mississippi Senators Endorse McDaniel for U.S. Senate". Chris McDaniel for U.S. Senate. October 28, 2013. Retrieved February 11, 2014.
  53. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "About Chris". Chris McDaniel for U.S. Senate. Retrieved February 28, 2014.
  54. 1 2 Kemp, Ed (October 17, 2013). "McDaniel tosses hat into US Senate race". Hattiesburg American. Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  55. ↑ "The Mark Levin Show".
  56. ↑ "Chris McDaniel Endorsed By Citizens United Political Victory Fund". Yall Politics. January 28, 2014. Retrieved February 11, 2014.
  57. 1 2 3 Hohmann, James (October 17, 2013). "Conservative groups back Thad Cochran opponent". Politico. Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  58. ↑ Strauss, Faniel (October 28, 2013). "FreedomWorks Endorses Miss. GOP Primary Challenger Who Attended Neo-Confederate Conference". Talking Points Memo. Retrieved October 29, 2013.
  59. ↑ "National Assn for Gun Rights PAC endorses Chris McDaniel". Yall Politics. February 19, 2014. Retrieved February 28, 2014.
  60. ↑ "Tea Party Express Endorses Chris McDaniel For U.S. Senate". Chris McDaniel for Senate. Retrieved November 6, 2013.
  61. ↑ "@senatormcdaniel was endorsed by 9-12 Jones County tonight". Twitter. November 4, 2013. Retrieved February 11, 2014.
  62. ↑ Criswell, Dana (January 4, 2014). "Now is the time for Mississippi Gun Owners to make a change in Washington". Politico. Retrieved February 11, 2014.
  63. ↑ Hawkins, John (February 18, 2014). "Right Wing News Endorses Chris McDaniel for Senate in Mississippi". Right Wing News. Retrieved February 28, 2014.
  64. 1 2 Blake, Aaron (15 November 2013). "Ex-Rep. Travis Childers (D) considering run for Mississippi Senate seat". Washington Post. Retrieved 19 November 2013.
  65. 1 2 Schultheis, Emily (February 28, 2014). "Travis Childers to run for Senate in Mississippi". POLITICO. Retrieved February 28, 2014.
  66. 1 2 3 Harrison, Bobby (February 22, 2014). "No decision yet by Childers on Senate race". Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  67. 1 2 "Political buzz: Alan Nunnelee lone Mississippi congressman without a party primary". The Mississippi Press. March 1, 2014. Retrieved March 1, 2014.
  68. ↑ Wagster Pettus, Emily (January 10, 2014). "Ex-Republican running as Dem for US Senate in Mississippi". Sun Herald. Biloxi, Mississippi. Associated Press. Retrieved January 13, 2014.
  69. ↑ Ken Strachan (September 5, 2012). "Cochran Retirement Could Be Interesting". Jackson Free Press. Retrieved July 1, 2013.
  70. ↑ "AP analysis: No smooth road for U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran if he runs". Mississippi Press. October 27, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  71. ↑ Perry, Brian (July 31, 2013). "PERRY/Who runs if Cochran doesn't?". Neshoba Democrat. Retrieved October 18, 2013.
  72. ↑ Sam R. Hall (October 17, 2013). "State Sen. Chris McDaniel to challenge U.S. Sen. Thad Cochran". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved October 19, 2013.
  73. ↑ "2014 Democrat Primary Results". Secretary of State of Mississippi. June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 9, 2014.
  74. ↑ Alexander Burns (May 30, 2014). "CAn a Democrat win in Mississippi?". Politico. Retrieved June 3, 2014.
  75. 1 2 Shawn O'Hara (Reform)
  76. ↑ "Maine General Election 2014". Mississippi Secretary of State. 2014-11-04. Retrieved December 22, 2014.
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