Predictions for the 2008 elections of the United States House of Representatives
Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority.[1]
Overview
On April 8, 2008, analyst Stuart Rothenberg of The Rothenberg Political Report (who bills himself as non-partisan) stated that the fight for the House would be a "one-sided battle, with Democrats having most of the targets." He points to a list of one dozen seats (out of all 435 seats in the House) that are most likely to change hands, of those twelve, ten are open seats, seats which Republicans won by 3% or less in 2006 or otherwise endangered GOP seats.[2]
In May 2007, conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote that he believed there were at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008". He also said,
| “ | a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party. | ” |
Novak qualified this by saying that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election".[3]
InTrade.com, the only betting site that offered odds on control of the House, put the likelihood of the Democrats retaining control at about 90% as of October 2008.[4]
There have been three special elections for open Republican seats, IL-14 (formerly held by Dennis Hastert), LA-06 (formerly held by Richard Baker) and MS-01 (formerly held by Roger Wicker). Democrats won all three elections. After the MS-01 loss, Ron Gunzburger wrote, "GOP insiders in DC now privately acknowledge the Democratic victory in this seat likely foreshadows a dismal general election ahead for congressional Republicans."[5]
Table
The following table rates the competitiveness of selected races from around the country according to noted political analysts. Races not included should be considered safe for the incumbent's party. (Incumbents not running for re-election have parentheses around their name.)
| District | Incumbent | Cook[6] | Rothenberg[7] | CQ Politics[8] | Crystal Ball[9] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AL-2 | (Everett) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Republican Hold |
| AL-3 | Rogers (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| AL-5 | (Cramer) (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Hold |
| AK-AL | Young (R) | Tossup | D Favored | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| AZ-1 | (Renzi) (R) | Likely D | D Favored | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| AZ-3 | Shadegg (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| AZ-5 | Mitchell (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| AZ-8 | Giffords (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| CA-3 | Lungren (R) | Likely R | R Favored | R Favored | Safe R |
| CA-4 | (Doolittle) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| CA-11 | McNerney (D) | Leans D | Leans D | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| CA-26 | Dreier (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| CA-45 | Bono (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R | Safe R |
| CA-46 | Rohrabacher (R) | Likely R | R Favored | R Favored | Safe R |
| CA-50 | Bilbray (R) | Leans R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Republican Hold |
| CO-4 | Musgrave (R) | Tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| CT-2 | Courtney (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Safe D |
| CT-4 | Shays (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| CT-5 | Murphy (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| FL-8 | Keller (R) | Tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| FL-13 | Buchanan (R) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| FL-15 | (Weldon) (R) | Solid R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| FL-16 | Mahoney (D) | Likely R | R Favored | Leans R | Republican Pick-up |
| FL-18 | Ros-Lehtinen (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| FL-21 | L. Diaz-Balart (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| FL-22 | Klein (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Safe D |
| FL-24 | Feeney (R) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| FL-25 | M. Diaz-Balart (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R | Democratic Pick-up |
| GA-8 | Marshall (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| GA-12 | Barrow (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| GA-13 | Scott (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Safe D |
| ID-1 | Sali (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| IL-6 | Roskam (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| IL-8 | Bean (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| IL-10 | Kirk (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| IL-11 | (Weller) (R) | Leans D | Leans D | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| IL-13 | Biggert (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| IL-14 | Foster (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| IL-18 | (LaHood) (R) | Solid R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Republican Hold |
| IN-3 | Souder (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| IN-8 | Ellsworth (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | Safe D | Democratic Hold |
| IN-9 | Hill (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| IA-4 | Latham (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Republican Hold |
| KS-2 | Boyda (D) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Hold |
| KS-3 | Moore (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| KY-2 | (Lewis) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| KY-3 | Yarmuth (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| LA-1 | Scalise (R) | Solid R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| LA-4 | (McCrery) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Republican Hold |
| LA-6 | Cazayoux (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Hold |
| LA-7 | Boustany (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Republican Hold |
| ME-1 | (Allen) (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Safe D |
| MD-1 | (Gilchrest) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Republican Hold |
| MI-7 | Walberg (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| MI-8 | Rogers (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R | Safe R |
| MI-9 | Knollenberg (R) | Tossup | Leans D | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| MI-11 | McCotter (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R | Safe R |
| MN-1 | Walz (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| MN-2 | Kline (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| MN-3 | (Ramstad) (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Republican Hold |
| MN-6 | Bachmann (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| MS-1 | Childers (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| MO-6 | Graves (R) | Leans R | Limited Risk | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| MO-9 | (Hulshof) (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| NE-2 | Terry (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| NV-2 | Heller (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| NV-3 | Porter (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| NH-1 | Shea-Porter (D) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Hold |
| NH-2 | Hodes (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| NJ-3 | (Saxton) (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| NJ-5 | Garrett (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Republican Hold |
| NJ-7 | (Ferguson) (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| NM-1 | (Wilson) (R) | Leans D | Leans D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| NM-2 | (Pearce) (R) | Tossup | Leans D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| NY-13 | (Fossella) (R) | Likely D | D Favored | D Favored | Democratic Pick-up |
| NY-19 | Hall (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| NY-20 | Gillibrand (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| NY-24 | Arcuri (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| NY-25 | (Walsh) (R) | Likely D | D Favored | D Favored | Democratic Pick-up |
| NY-26 | (Reynolds) (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts R | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| NY-29 | Kuhl (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| NC-5 | Foxx (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R | Safe R |
| NC-8 | Hayes (R) | Tossup | Leans D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| NC-10 | McHenry (R) | Solid R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| OH-1 | Chabot (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| OH-2 | Schmidt (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| OH-7 | (Hobson) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| OH-12 | Tiberi (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| OH-14 | LaTourette (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| OH-15 | (Pryce) (R) | Leans D | Tossup/Tilts D | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| OH-16 | (Regula) (R) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D | Democratic Pick-up |
| OH-18 | Space (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| OK-1 | Sullivan (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R | Safe R |
| OK-4 | Cole (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R | Safe R |
| OR-5 | (Hooley) (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| PA-3 | English (R) | Tossup | Tossup/Tilts D | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| PA-4 | Altmire (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| PA-5 | (Peterson) (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | Safe R | Safe R |
| PA-6 | Gerlach (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Republican Hold |
| PA-8 | Murphy (D) | Solid D | Limited Risk | D Favored | Democratic Hold |
| PA-10 | Carney (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| PA-11 | Kanjorski (D) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Republican Pick-up |
| PA-12 | Murtha (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| PA-15 | Dent (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Republican Hold |
| PA-18 | Murphy (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Republican Hold |
| SC-1 | Brown (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| SC-2 | Wilson (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| TX-7 | Culberson (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| TX-10 | McCaul (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| TX-22 | Lampson (D) | Tossup | Leans R | No Clear Favorite | Republican Pick-up |
| TX-23 | Rodriguez (D) | Likely D | Limited Risk | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| VA-2 | Drake (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| VA-5 | Goode (R) | Leans R | Leans R | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| VA-10 | Wolf (R) | Likely R | Limited Risk | R Favored | Safe R |
| VA-11 | (Davis) (R) | Likely D | D Favored | D Favored | Democratic Pick-up |
| WA-8 | Reichert (R) | Tossup | Pure Tossup | No Clear Favorite | Democratic Pick-up |
| WV-2 | Capito (R) | Leans R | R Favored | Leans R | Republican Hold |
| WI-8 | Kagen (D) | Leans D | D Favored | Leans D | Democratic Hold |
| WY-AL | (Cubin) (R) | Leans R | Leans R | No Clear Favorite | Republican Hold |
References
- ↑ Elliott, Scott (November 8, 2006). "The future of the Congress". ElectionProjection.com. Archived from the original on 2007-02-07. Retrieved 2007-02-15.
- ↑ Rothenberg, Stuart (April 8, 2008). "Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats". RealClearPolitics.com. Retrieved 2008-04-08.
- ↑ Novak, Robert (May 2, 2007). "Evans-Novak Political Report". Human Events. Retrieved 2007-05-02.
- ↑ "Contract - Democratic or GOP control of the House of Representatives, 2008". InTrade.com. Archived from the original on September 19, 2008. Retrieved February 6, 2008.
- ↑ Gunzburger, Ron (May 14, 2008). "Politics1.com". Politics1.com. Retrieved 2008-05-14.
- ↑ Cook Political Report, as of November 4, 2008
- ↑ Rothenberg Political Report, as of November 2, 2008
- ↑ CQ Politics, as of November 3, 2008
- ↑ The Last Last Word, as of November 3, 2008
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