Next Spanish general election

Next Spanish general election
Spain
No later than 26 July 2020
All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies and 208 (of the 265) seats in the Senate
176 seats needed for a majority in the Congress of Deputies
Opinion polls
 
Leader Mariano Rajoy Caretaker committee Pablo Iglesias
Party PP PSOE Unidos Podemos
Leader since 2 September 2003 1 October 2016 15 November 2014
Leader's seat Madrid — Madrid
Last election 137 seats, 33.0% 85 seats, 22.6% 71 seats, 21.2%
Current seats 137 84 71
Seats needed Increase39 Increase92 Increase105
 
Leader Albert Rivera Gabriel Rufián Francesc Homs
Party C's ERC–CatSí PDECAT
Leader since 9 July 2006 7 November 2015 6 November 2015
Leader's seat Madrid Barcelona Barcelona
Last election 32 seats, 13.1% 9 seats, 2.6% 8 seats, 2.0%[lower-alpha 1]
Current seats 32 9 8
Seats needed Increase144 Unable Unable

Most voted party by autonomous community and province.
Incumbent Prime Minister

Mariano Rajoy
PP

The next Spanish general election will be held no later than Sunday, 26 July 2020, as provided by the Spanish constitution[1] and the Organic Law of the General Election Regime of 1985.[2] It will open the 13th Legislature of Spain, to elect the 13th Cortes Generales of the Kingdom of Spain. All 350 seats in the Congress of Deputies will be up for election, as well as 208 of 266 seats in the Senate.

The 2016 election proved inconclusive, with the People's Party (PP) coming out strengthened but with neither the PP–C's nor the PSOE–Unidos Podemos blocs being able to command a large enough majority to ensure governance alone. In the end, after a 10-month political deadlock, Mariano Rajoy was able to become Prime Minister thanks to PSOE's abstention, after the party suffered an internal crisis which resulted in the ousting of its leader, Pedro Sánchez.

Overview

Electoral system

The Spanish legislature, the Cortes Generales (Spanish for General Courts) is composed of two chambers:

This bicameral system is regarded as asymmetric, because while legislative initiative belongs to both chambers (as well as to the Government), the Congress of Deputies has greater legislative power than the Senate, and it can also override most of the Senate initiatives by an absolute majority of votes. Also, only Congress has the ability to grant or revoke confidence from a Prime Minister. Nonetheless, the Senate possesses a few exclusive functions which are not subject to the Congress' override, but these are limited.[3]

Settled customary practice has been to dissolve and re-elect both chambers at the same time, thus triggering a "general" election. Article 115 of the Spanish Constitution allows, however, for each chamber to be elected separately. The electoral system in Spain is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot.

Congress of Deputies

For the Congress of Deputies, 348 members are elected in 50 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and closed-list proportional representation for four-year terms. In addition, Ceuta and Melilla elect one member each using plurality voting. Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 248 seats being allocated among the 50 provinces in proportion to their populations. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution. However, in most districts there is a higher effective threshold at the constituency level, depending on the district magnitude.[4]

Senate

For the Senate, each of the 47 peninsular districts (the provinces) is assigned four seats. For the insular provinces, the Balearic Islands and Canary Islands, districts are the islands themselves, with the larger—Mallorca, Gran Canaria, and Tenerife—being assigned three seats each, and the smaller—Menorca, Ibiza-Formentera, Fuerteventura, Gomera, Hierro, Lanzarote and La Palma—one each. Ceuta and Melilla are assigned two seats each, for a total of 208 directly elected seats. The system used is that of limited voting. In districts electing four seats, electors may vote for up to three candidates; in those with two or three seats, for up to two candidates; and for one candidate in single-member constituencies. Electors vote for individual candidates; those attaining the largest number of votes in each district are elected for four-year terms.

In addition, the legislative assemblies of the autonomous communities are entitled to appoint at least one senator each, and one senator for every million inhabitants, adding a variable number of appointed seats to the 208 directly-elected senators.[5] This appointment usually does not take place at the same time as the general election, but after the autonomous communities hold their respective elections.

Eligibility

Dual membership of both chambers of the Cortes or of the Cortes and regional assemblies is prohibited, meaning that candidates must resign from regional assemblies if elected. Active judges, magistrates, ombudsmen, serving military personnel, active police officers and members of constitutional and electoral tribunals are also ineligible,[6] as well as CEOs or equivalent leaders of state monopolies and public bodies, such as the Spanish state broadcaster RTVE.[7] Additionally, under the Political Parties Law, June 2002, parties and individual candidates may be prevented from standing by the Spanish Supreme Court if they are judicially perceived to discriminate against people on the basis of ideology, religion, beliefs, nationality, race, gender or sexual orientation, foment or organise violence as a means of achieving political objectives or support or compliment the actions of "terrorist organisations".[8]

Following changes to the electoral law which took effect for the 2007 municipal elections, candidates' lists must be composed of at least 40% of candidates of either gender and each group of five candidates must contain at least two males and two females.[9]

Parties and coalitions of different parties which have registered with the Electoral Commission can present lists of candidates. Groups of electors which have not registered with the Commission can also present lists, provided that they obtain the signatures of 1% of registered electors in a particular district. Also since 30 January 2011, political parties without representation in any of the Chambers in the previous general election are required to obtain the signatures of 0.1% of registered electors in the districts they want to stand for in order to present lists for those districts.[7][10]

Background

Economy

Immediately after the election, as ECOFIN ministers activated the sanction procedure to Spain on 12 July as a result of the country not meeting its deficit targets—which could result in a fine worth €2 billion fine and a freezing of Structural Funding—the PP caretaker government announced a future rise of the corporate tax with which it expected to collect an additional €6 billion, so as to tackle public deficit and trying to avoid the fine.[11][12] This move was criticized internally, as Rajoy's caretaker government could not implement the measure until the completion of the ongoing government formation process, as well as because it clashed with one of PP's recent election pledges to lower taxes.[13][14]

Government formation

PSOE crisis

Further information: 2016 PSOE crisis

Criticism of Pedro Sánchez for his electoral results and his hardline stance on Rajoy's investiture, said to be a contributing factor to the country's political deadlock, reached a boiling point after poor PSOE showings in the Basque and Galician elections.[15] Amid calls for his resignation, Sánchez responded by announcing a party primary and congress for October–December 2016, enraging dissenters and prompting half the members of the party executive committee—the party's day-to-day ruling body—to resign on 28 September, in order to prompt Sánchez's sacking and take command themselves.

Sánchez refused to step down and entrenched himself within the party's headquarters, generating the largest crisis in the party's history, as neither side acknowledged the other's legitimacy to act in the party's name.[16] This situation ended when Sánchez resigned after losing a key ballot to Susana Díaz's-led rebels in the party's federal committee on 1 October,[17] being replaced by a caretaker committee and leaving behind a shattered PSOE.[18] Subsequently, the new party's leadership chose to allow a PP minority government in order to end the 10-month political deadlock.[19]

Candidates

People's Party (PP)

Presumptive incumbent

Portrait Name Party Born Most recent position
 Mariano Rajoy 27 March 1955
(age 61)		 Congress of Deputies MP (1989–present)
President of the PP (2004–present)
Prime Minister (2011–present)

Potential

Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)

Potential

PSOE voters
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Other/
None		 Question
MyWord 17.11.16–22.11.16 ? 12.3 16.2 17.1 9.3 35.8 4.6 4.7
SocioMétrica 31.10.16–04.11.16 ? 11.5 20.7 — 13.6 37.7 16.6
DYM 27.09.16–06.10.16 ? — 23.9 — 9.0 38.9 28.2
SocioMétrica 26.09.16–30.09.16 ? — 25.4 — 21.2 37.2 15.3
Spanish voters
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Other/
None		 Question
MyWord 17.11.16–22.11.16 1,000 9.0 13.9 14.8 11.5 19.0 7.8 24.0
SocioMétrica 31.10.16–04.11.16 800 10.0 21.6 — 12.6 25.1 30.7
Invymark 31.10.16–04.11.16 ? 15.7 28.3 15.5 — 22.0 — 18.5
DYM 27.09.16–06.10.16 1,132 — 14.4 — 10.4 18.4 56.8
SocioMétrica 26.09.16–30.09.16 1,000 — 21.4 — 17.3 31.5 29.7

Declined

Unidos Podemos (Podemos–IU–eQuo)

Potential

Unidos Podemos voters
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Other/
None		 Question
MyWord 17.11.16–22.11.16 ? 6.9 18.3 30.7 35.0 5.9 1.4 1.8
DYM 27.09.16–06.10.16 ? — 31.9 — 51.5 — 16.6
Spanish voters
Polling firm/Link Fieldwork date Sample
size		 Other/
None		 Question
MyWord 17.11.16–22.11.16 1,000 4.6 19.8 23.6 14.2 6.5 5.7 25.6
DYM 27.09.16–06.10.16 1,132 — 29.4 — 27.1 — 43.5

Ciudadanos (C's)

Potential

Date of the election

Latest possible date

The next general election cannot be held later than Sunday 26 July 2020. This date is determined as follows:

Law Requirement Comments
Constitution: Article 68.4[50] The General Courts have a maximum term of four years, starting on election day. The 2016 election was held on 26 June 2016. Four years after 26 June 2016 is 26 June 2020.
LOREG: Article 42.2[51] The decree calling for new elections will be automatically issued 25 days before the expiry date of the General Courts' term, and will be published the following day. 25 days before 26 June 2020 is 1 June 2020. The day after 1 June 2020 is 2 June 2020.
LOREG: Article 42.2[51] The election must take place within 54 days of the publication of the election call decree. 54 days after 2 June 2020 is 26 July 2020.

Opinion polling

Notes

  1. ↑ Compared to CDC results in the 2016 election.

References

  1. ↑ Article 68 of the Spanish Constitution of 1978
  2. ↑ Article 42.2 of the Organic Law of the General Election Regime of 1985
  3. ↑ "Article 66 Summary". Retrieved 2015-10-27.
  4. ↑ "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 2015-10-21.
  5. ↑ "General Aspects of the Electoral System".
  6. ↑ "The Spanish Constitution of 1978".
  7. 1 2 "Law governing electoral procedures". Retrieved 6 March 2011.
  8. ↑ "Law regarding registration of political parties". Retrieved 2011-03-06.
  9. ↑ "OSCE observers task force report on 2008 Spanish election" (PDF). Organisation for security and cooperation in Europe OSCE. Retrieved 2011-03-06.
  10. ↑ "BOE.es – Documento consolidado BOE-A-1985-11672".
  11. ↑ "ECOFIN ministers active the sanction procedure to Spain" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-07-12.
  12. ↑ "Spain moves to attack in Brussels and hardens corporate tax" (in Spanish). El País. 2016-07-12.
  13. ↑ "De Guindos promises Brussels a rise in corporate tax that he cannot apply" (in Spanish). 20 Minutos. 2016-07-12.
  14. ↑ "Rajoy pledged in his manifesto to lower the corporate tax that he will now raise to meet with deficit targets" (in Spanish). laSexta. 2016-07-13.
  15. ↑ "The electoral debacle leaves Sanchez against the ropes to his critics" (in Spanish). La Vanguardia. 2016-09-26.
  16. ↑ "PSOE plunges into its largest crisis after Sánchez refused to step down following the resignation of half the executive committee" (in Spanish). La Voz de Galicia. 2016-09-29.
  17. ↑ "Pedro Sánchez: Spanish Socialist leader resigns". BBC News. 2016-10-01.
  18. ↑ "Sánchez resigns, PSOE implodes" (in Spanish). El Periódico. 2016-10-01.
  19. ↑ "Spain's Socialists vote to allow Rajoy minority government". BBC News. 2016-10-23.
  20. ↑ "Rajoy podrá convocar elecciones a partir del 3 de mayo si ve inviable gobernar en minoría". Expansión (in Spanish). 2016-10-23.
  21. ↑ "Mariano Rajoy se presentará como candidato para liderar de nuevo el PP". lainformacion.com (in Spanish). 2016-11-21.
  22. ↑ "El nombre de Pablo Casado cobra fuerza ante el incierto futuro del PP". El Huffington Post (in Spanish). 2016-03-23.
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "Nueve aspirantes en la carrera por la sucesión de Mariano Rajoy". El Español (in Spanish). 2016-02-01.
  24. ↑ "Rajoy pedirá a Cospedal que deje la secretaría general del PP si aspira a ser la próxima presidenta". El Confidencial Digital (in Spanish). 2016-11-14.
  25. ↑ "De la Serna, ¿el nuevo delfín de Mariano?: Feijóo, el gran desplazado". vozpópuli (in Spanish). 2016-11-04.
  26. ↑ "Rajoy prevé asistir este sábado a la toma de posesión de Feijóo en Santiago". Europa Press (in Spanish). 2016-10-11.
  27. ↑ "Feijóo es investido como presidente de la Xunta de Galicia por tercera vez". El Español (in Spanish). 2016-11-10.
  28. ↑ "Sáenz de Santamaría, vicepresidenta y enlace con Catalunya". El Periódico de Catalunya (in Spanish). 2016-11-03.
  29. ↑ "Josep Borrell no descarta disputar el liderazgo del PSOE: "No he dicho que no"". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 2016-10-24.
  30. ↑ "Josep Borrell no descarta presentarse a primarias a secretario general del PSOE, aunque "ahora" no piensa en ello". infoLibre (in Spanish). 2016-10-24.
  31. ↑ "Susana Díaz da un paso al frente y se postula como secretaria general del PSOE". El Mundo (in Spanish). 2016-09-28.
  32. ↑ "El PSOE andaluz quiere hacerse fuerte para esperar a finales de primavera las primarias y el congreso del partido". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 2016-10-23.
  33. ↑ "Susana Díaz prefiere ser candidata única". El Mundo (in Spanish). 2016-11-20.
  34. ↑ "El PSE sitúa a Patxi López como la "mejor opción" para liderar el PSOE". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 2016-10-26.
  35. ↑ "Patxi López se perfila como un candidato de consenso para cerrar la crisis del PSOE". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 2016-11-06.
  36. ↑ "Miguel Ángel Revilla asegura que Pedro Sánchez le ha dicho que se presentará a las primarias". 20minutos (in Spanish). 2016-10-01.
  37. ↑ "Pedro Sánchez deja el escaño y lanza su candidatura a la secretaría general". El País (in Spanish). 2016-10-30.
  38. ↑ "Pedro Sánchez y siete barones del PSOE preparan la batalla contra Susana Díaz". El Mundo (in Spanish). 2016-11-20.
  39. ↑ "Eduardo Madina descarta disputar el liderazgo del PSOE: "Segundas partes nunca fueron buenas"". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 2016-10-26.
  40. ↑ "El Plan 2019 de Colau: se da tres años para desbancar a Pablo Iglesias". El Confidencial (in Spanish). 2016-11-07.
  41. ↑ "Íñigo Errejón no se rinde e insiste en dar batalla a Pablo Iglesias". El Mundo (in Spanish). 2016-11-13.
  42. ↑ "Alberto Garzón quiere "superar IU en un nuevo espacio político lo antes posible"". El País (in Spanish). 2016-11-21.
  43. ↑ "Iglesias se proclama líder de la oposición y defiende un Podemos "militante"". infoLibre (in Spanish). 2016-10-07.
  44. ↑ "Pablo Iglesias presentará su candidatura en 2017 para seguir liderando Podemos". 20minutos (in Spanish). 2016-10-09.
  45. ↑ "Inés Arrimadas, la alumna aventajada de Ciudadanos: "Es un bendito problema que me comparen con Rivera"". ABC (in Spanish). 2016-05-23.
  46. ↑ "Punset baraja ya presentar una candidatura alternativa a Rivera". El Mundo (in Spanish). 2016-11-17.
  47. ↑ "Carolina Punset condiciona su candidatura alternativa a Albert Rivera a que haya "juego limpio"". ABC (in Spanish). 2016-11-17.
  48. ↑ "Rivera se presentará a la reelección como líder de Ciudadanos". El Español (in Spanish). 2016-11-07.
  49. ↑ "Ciudadanos se enfrenta a su congreso de madurez". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 2016-11-16.
  50. ↑ "Spanish Constitution of 1978; Title III. Of the General Courts, Chapter I. Of the Chambers.". congreso.es. Retrieved 2013-02-09.
  51. 1 2 "Organic Law 5/1985, of June 19, of the General Electoral System; Title I. Chapter V. General requirements of the calling of elections.". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2013-08-11.
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