Next Queensland state election

Next Queensland state election
Queensland
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland
47 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Annastacia Palaszczuk Tim Nicholls
Party Labor Liberal National
Leader since 28 March 2012 (2012-03-28) 6 May 2016 (2016-05-06)
Leader's seat Inala Clayfield
Last election 44 seats 42 seats
Current seats 42 seats 42 seats
Seats needed Increase5 Increase5
TPP @ 2015 51.1% 48.9%
TPP Polling 52% 48%
Preferred Premier 54.5% 45.5%
Incumbent Premier

Annastacia Palaszczuk
Labor

The next Queensland state election is scheduled to be held in or before 2018 to elect all 93 members to the unicameral Legislative Assembly of Queensland. The first-term Labor government, currently led by Premier of Queensland Annastacia Palaszczuk, will attempt to win a second term. The Liberal National opposition is currently led by Opposition Leader Tim Nicholls.

Labor is governing as a minority government in a hung parliament with confidence and supply support while retaining the right to vote on conscience from crossbench independent MP Peter Wellington as well as the support of the independent member for Cook, Billy Gordon, who was expelled from the Parliamentary Labor Party over a failure to disclose criminal history, and the independent member for Cairns, Rob Pyne, who resigned from the Labor Party in March 2016.[1][2]

Successful amendments to the electoral act through legislation and a referendum in early 2016 include adding an additional four parliamentary seats from 89 to 93, changing from optional preferential voting to full-preferential voting, and moving from unfixed three-year terms to fixed four-year terms.[3] However, fixed four-year terms will not take effect until after the 2017/18 election.[4]

Previous election

At the 2015 election, Labor won 44 seats, the most of all parties, but short by one of commanding a majority in the Legislative Assembly. The Liberal National Party, despite winning a record majority of 78 at the previous election, won 42 seats. Katter's Australian Party won two seats, and the independent member for Nicklin, Wellington, retained his seat.[5]

Wellington gave confidence and supply support to Labor to form government, giving it the majority of 45 out of 89 seats in parliament, and consequently the previous Liberal National government under the leadership of Campbell Newman, who lost his seat of Ashgrove, lost office after one term.

Polling

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
ALP LNP Green Other ALP LNP
November 2016 Galaxy[6] 35% 37% 8% 20% 51% 49%
October 2016 Roy Morgan[7] 35.5% 33.5% 12% 19% 52% 48%
August 2016 Roy Morgan[8] 36.5% 38.5% 9.5% 15.5% 50% 50%
May-June 2016 Newspoll[9] 38% 40% - - 51% 49%
May 2016 Morgan[10] 35.5% 40.5% 10.5% 13.5% 50% 50%
10–11 May 2016 Galaxy[11] 44% 36% 9% 11% 48% 52%
26 April 2016 ReachTEL[12] 36.9% 42.8% 10.8% 9.5% 48% 52%
March 2016 Roy Morgan[13] 37.5% 40% 12.5% 9.5% 52% 48%
10–11 February 2016 Galaxy[14] 43% 37% 9% 11% 48% 52%
Jan-Feb 2016 Roy Morgan[15] 36.5% 45.5% 9% 9% 48% 52%
December 2015 Newspoll[16] 41% 39% 8% 12% 52% 48%
17–18 November 2015 Galaxy[14] 42% 37% 9% 12% 49% 51%
16 Oct 2015 Morgan[17] 34.5% 42% 11.5% 12% 49% 51%
Sep 2015 Newspoll[18] 41% 38% 9% 12% 53% 47%
28–31 Aug 2015 Morgan[19] 38.5% 41.5% 12% 8% 52% 48%
19–20 Aug 2015 Galaxy[20] 40% 39% 10% 11% 52% 48%
19–21 Jun 2015 Morgan[21] 39.5% 42% 9.5% 9% 51.5% 48.5%
22–24 May 2015 Morgan[22] 34% 44% 11% 1% 48% 52%
22 May 2015 ReachTEL[23] 37.6% 45.6% 9.4% 7.4% 48% 52%
19–20 May 2015 Galaxy[24] 40% 39% 9% 12% 52% 47%
10–12 Apr 2015 Morgan[25] 40% 40.5% 9.5% 10% 52.5% 47.5%
8–9 Apr 2015 Galaxy[24] 39% 42% 7% 12% 50% 50%
31 Jan 2015 election 37.5% 41.3% 8.4% 12.8% 51.1% 48.9%
26–29 Jan 2015 Newspoll[26] 37% 41% 6% 14% 48% 52%
9–26 Jan 2015 Essential[27] 38% 39% 7% 16% 50% 50%
16–18 Jan 2015 Morgan[28] 37% 39.5% 10% 13.5% 49.5% 50.5%

Retiring MPs

The following Members of the Queensland Legislative Assembly have announced their intention to not contest the next state election:

Liberal National Party

See also

References

  1. ↑ "Billy Gordon: Queensland Labor thrown into turmoil after Cook MP admits to undisclosed criminal history". ABC News. 29 March 2015.
  2. ↑ "Rob Pyne quits Queensland Labor Party; Palaszczuk Government now even with LNP at 42 seats". ABC News. 7 March 2016. Retrieved 7 March 2016.
  3. ↑ Electoral Law Ructions in the Queensland Parliament: Antony Green 21 April 2016
  4. ↑ "Queensland referendum: Vote on four-year parliamentary terms passes". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 21 May 2016.
  5. ↑ "2015 Election Results Summary". Electoral Commission of Queensland. Retrieved 15 February 2015.
  6. ↑ "Galaxy: 51-49 to Labor in Queensland". Poll Bludger. 13 November 2016.
  7. ↑ "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute". Roy Morgan Research. 10 October 2016.
  8. ↑ "Now 'too close to call' in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 8 September 2016.
  9. ↑ Sarah Elks (22 June 2016). "Ballot shift saves ALP as voters shun Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk". The Australian.
  10. ↑ "BL-NP in front in NSW & WA and ALP well in front in Victoria but parties dead-level in Queensland after LNP elect new Leader Tim Nicholls". Roy Morgan Research. 1 June 2016.
  11. ↑ William Bowe (15 May 2016). "Galaxy: 52-48 to state LNP in Queensland". Poll Bludger. Crikey.
  12. ↑ "7 News - Queensland poll - 26 April 2016". ReachTEL. 27 April 2016.
  13. ↑ "ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4 year terms successful". Roy Morgan Research. 1 April 2016.
  14. 1 2 "DISSATISFACTION WITH LEADERS ON THE RISE". Galaxy Research. 13 February 2016.
  15. ↑ "Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) increases support in South Australia while L-NP well in front in NSW and ALP holds solid lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 3 February 2016.
  16. ↑ William Bowe (24 December 2015). "Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland". Poll Bludger. Crikey.
  17. ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  18. ↑ "Newspoll". News Corp. 28 September 2015. Archived from the original on 28 September 2015.
  19. ↑ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States except Tasmania are close". Roy Morgan Research. 3 September 2015. Retrieved 3 September 2015.
  20. ↑ "LABOR MAINTAINS LEAD IN QUEENSLAND". Galaxy Research. 24 August 2015.
  21. ↑ "Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while Annastacia Palaszczuk regains lead in Queensland". Roy Morgan Research. 25 June 2015.
  22. ↑ "Honeymoons continue for NSW Premier Baird & Victorian Premier Andrews while the honeymoon is over for Queensland Premier Palaszczuk". Roy Morgan Research. 27 May 2015.
  23. ↑ "Queensland Poll". 22 May 2015.
  24. 1 2 "Voters warming to Palaszczuk government". 23 May 2015.
  25. ↑ "NSW Premier Mike Baird enjoys clear honeymoon lead; Voters in Queensland back Premier Palaszczuk after strong stance on Billy Gordon". Roy Morgan Research. 15 April 2015.
  26. ↑ "26–29 Jan 2015 QLD state Newspoll" (PDF). Newspoll. 31 January 2015.
  27. ↑ "7 The Essential Report – Queensland State Election" (PDF). news.com.au. 29 January 2015. Retrieved 29 January 2015.
  28. ↑ "Queensland State Election too close to call with only a week to go but Mike Baird set to be re-elected Premier in NSW". Roy Morgan Research. 22 January 2015. Retrieved 25 January 2015.
  29. ↑ "MP Ian Rickuss announces retirement". news.com.au. 12 November 2016. Retrieved 3 December 2016.
  30. ↑ "Lawrence Springborg to quit politics". The Courier-Mail. 3 December 2016. Retrieved 3 December 2016.
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