Murcian parliamentary election, 2015

24 May 2015

All 45 seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia 23 seats needed for a majority

Opinion polls
Registered	1,027,159^[1] 5.3%
Turnout	645,410 (65.2%) 2.7 pp
	First party	Second party

Leader	Pedro Antonio Sánchez	Rafael González Tovar
Party	PP	PSOE
Leader since	6 March 2015	23 March 2012
Last election	33 seats, 58.8%	11 seats, 23.9%
Seats won	22	13
Seat change	11	2
Popular vote	236,456	151,504
Percentage	37.4%	24.0%
Swing	21.4 pp	0.1 pp

	Third party	Fourth party

Leader	Óscar Urralburu	Miguel Sánchez López
Party	Podemos	C's
Leader since	14 February 2015	17 March 2015
Last election	Did not contest	Did not contest
Seats won	6	4
Seat change	6	4
Popular vote	83,133	79,057
Percentage	13.1%	12.5%
Swing	New party	New party

President before election

Alberto Garre
PP

Elected President

Pedro Antonio Sánchez
PP

The 2015 Murcian parliamentary election was held on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Regional Assembly of Murcia, the unicameral regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Murcia. At stake were all 45 seats in the Regional Assembly, determining the President of the Region of Murcia.

The election was held concurrently with the regional elections for 12 other autonomous communities, as well as the 2015 municipal elections.

Electoral system

The number of seats in the Regional Assembly of Murcia is set to a fixed-number of 45. All Assembly members are elected in 5 multi-member districts using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Unlike other regions, districts do not coincide with provincial limits, being determined by law as such:

District One, 7 seats, comprising the municipalities of: Lorca, Aguilas, Puerto Lumbreras, Totana, Alhama de Murcia, Librilla, Aledo and Mazarrón.
District Two, 11 seats, comprising the municipalities of: Cartagena, La Unión, Fuente Alamo de Murcia, Torre-Pacheco, San Javier, San Pedro del Pinatar and Los Alcázares.
District Three, 21 seats, comprising the municipalities of: Murcia, Alcantarilla, Beniel, Molina de Segura, Alguazas, Las Torres de Cotillas, Lorquí, Ceutí, Cieza, Abarán, Blanca, Archena, Ricote, Ulea, Villanueva del Río Segura, Ojós, Fortuna, Abanilla and Santomera.
District Four, 4 seats, comprising the municipalities of: Caravaca, Cehegín, Calasparra, Moratalla, Bullas, Pliego, Mula, Albudeite and Campos del Río.
District Five, 2 seats, comprising the municipalities of: Jumilla and Yecla.

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 5% of valid votes in all of the community (which include blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution. This means that in the case a list polls above 5% in one or more of the districts but below 5% in the community totals, it will remain outside of the seat apportionment.^[2]

Opinion polls

Vote

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. Poll results use the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. However, if such date is unknown, the date of publication will be given instead.

Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	C's	P	Oth.	Lead
Date	Polling Firm/Source							Oth.	Lead
24 May 2015	Regional Election	37.4	24.0	4.8	1.6	12.5	13.1	6.6	13.4
Exit polls
17 May	NC-Report	40.2	21.6	4.8	1.8	14.2	12.3	5.1	18.6
4–10 May	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	34.4	20.8	5.1	1.1	21.3	13.5	3.8	13.1
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	41.0	24.9	5.0	1.1	13.8	10.4	3.8	16.1
4–16 Mar	NC-Report	39.1	20.3	5.1	2.3	15.6	14.2	3.4	18.8
2 Feb–6 Mar	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	36.8	20.8	5.3	3.0	14.8	15.4	3.9	16.0
2 Feb–1 Mar	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	38.3	20.7	5.3	3.3	12.8	15.9	3.7	17.6
2–20 Feb	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	38.4	20.7	5.3	3.0	12.2	16.9	3.5	17.7
2–13 Feb	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	38.5	21.5	5.7	3.0	11.2	17.1	3.0	17.0
2015
17–30 Sep	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	41.3	17.9	9.2	6.0	4.1	16.9	4.6	23.4
25 May 2014	EP Election	37.5	20.7	9.8	9.5	3.6	7.6	11.3	16.8
12–16 May	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	40.0	19.7	14.1	11.6			14.6	20.3
13 Apr	Sigma-2	50.1	25.8	10.1	7.7			6.3	24.3
2014
24 Nov	Celeste-Tel^{[lower-alpha 1]}	44.1	26.7	12.4	11.9			4.9	17.4
15 Oct–12 Nov	NC-Report	48.8	24.3					26.9	24.5
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report^{[lower-alpha 1]}	47.1	21.5					31.4	25.6
24–30 Jan	CEMOP^{[lower-alpha 1]}	40.9	26.5	14.0	11.8			6.8	14.4
2013
2012
20 Nov 2011	General Election	64.2	21.0	5.7	6.3			2.8	43.2
22 May 2011	Regional Election	58.8	23.9	7.8	4.5			5.0	34.9

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Regional Assembly of Murcia.

23 seats needed for majority
Date	Polling Firm/Source	PP	PSOE	IU	UPyD	C's	P	Others
Date	Polling Firm/Source							Others
24 May 2015	Regional Election	22	13	0	0	4	6	0
24 May	GAD3	21−23	12−13	0	0	5−6	4−6	0
Exit polls
17 May	GAD3	22	12−13	0	0	6	4−5	0
17 May	NC-Report	20−21	11−12	0	0	7−8	6−7	0
4–10 May	CEMOP	18−20	11	0	0	9−11	5	0
23 Mar–19 Apr	CIS	21−22	11−12	0	0	6	6	0
4–16 Mar	NC-Report	20−22	9−11	0−1	0	7−8	6−7	0
2 Feb–6 Mar	CEMOP	20	10	1	0	6	8	0
2–13 Feb	CEMOP	21−22	10−11	1	0	3−4	8−9	0
2015
19 Oct	PP	21−24	4−5	0	7−8	0	10−13	0
26 Sep	Ganemos	21−22	9−10	w.P	3	0	12	0
13 Apr	Sigma-2	25−26	12−13	3	3	0	0	0
2014
24 Nov	Celeste-Tel	22−23	13−14	4−5	4−5	0		0
15 Oct–12 Nov	NC-Report	24−25	12−13	4−5	3−4	0		0
15 Apr–10 May	NC-Report	23−24	12−13	4−5	4−5	0		0
2013
2012
22 May 2011	Regional Election	33	11	1	0			0

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Murcian Regional Assembly election results
Party		Vote			Seats

Party		Votes	%	±pp	Won	+/−
	People's Party (PP)	236,456	37.39	21.40	22	11
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE)	151,504	23.96	0.08	13	2
	We Can (Podemos)	83,133	13.15	New	6	6
	Citizens-Party of the Citizenry (C's)	79,057	12.50	New	4	4

	Win the Region of Murcia-Plural Left (IP)	30,423	4.81	3.02	0	1
	Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD)	10,247	1.62	2.88	0	±0
	Cartagena Citizen Movement (MCCartagena)	8,582	1.36	New	0	±0
	Citizens of Democratic Centre (CCD)	6,951	1.10	New	0	±0
	Vox (VOX)	5,513	0.87	New	0	±0
	Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA)	4,731	0.75	New	0	±0
	Blank Seats (Eb)	1,977	0.31	New	0	±0
	Zero Cuts (Recortes Cero)	1,430	0.23	0.12	0	±0
	Citizen Democratic Renewal Movement (RED)	909	0.14	New	0	±0
	Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE)	752	0.12	New	0	±0
	Centre and Democracy Forum (CyD)	749	0.12	0.01	0	±0
	Spain Underway (LEM)	86	0.01	New	0	±0
	Blank ballots	9,929	1.57	0.59

Total		632,429	100.00		45	±0

Valid votes		632,429	97.99	0.38
Invalid votes		12,981	2.01	0.38
Votes cast / turnout		645,410	65.22	2.69
Abstentions		344,222	34.78	2.69
Registered voters		989,632

Source: Argos Information Portal

Vote share

PP			37.39%
PSOE			23.96%
Podemos			13.15%
C's			12.50%
IP			4.81%
UPyD			1.62%
MCCartagena			1.36%
CCD			1.10%
Others			2.55%
Blank ballots			1.57%

Parliamentary seats

PP			48.89%
PSOE			28.89%
Podemos			13.33%
C's			8.89%

Notes

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poll results are shown projected over candidacy votes (that is, votes going for political parties, excluding blank ballots). The vote percentage in the official election is calculated including blank ballots into the estimation. In order to obtain data comparable to both the official results as well as those of other polls, a rule of three has been applied to the poll projections, with the results of the calculation being shown instead.

References

Elections in the Region of Murcia

Parliamentary elections	1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 next

General elections	1977 1979 1982 1986 1989 1993 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 2015 2016 next

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