Florida Democratic primary, 2016

Florida Democratic primary, 2016
Florida
March 15, 2016 (2016-03-15)

 
Candidate Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
Home state New York Vermont
Delegate count 141 73
Popular vote 1,101,414[1] 568,839
Percentage 64.44% 33.28%

Election results by county.
  Hillary Clinton
  Bernie Sanders

The 2016 Florida Democratic primary took place on March 15 in the U.S. state of Florida as one of the Democratic Party's primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.

On the same day, the Democratic Party held primaries in Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, while the Republican Party held primaries in the same five states, including their own Florida primary, plus the Northern Mariana Islands.

Debates and forums

March 2016 debate in Miami

On March 9, 2016, the Democratic Party held an eighth presidential debate at Miami Dade College in Miami, Florida. It was broadcast through a partnership between Univision and The Washington Post.

Opinion polling

Poll source Date 1st 2nd Other
Official Primary results March 15, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64.4%
Bernie Sanders
33.3%
Other
2.3%
ARG[2]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample size: 400

March 11–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
37%
Others / Undecided 5%
Quinnipiac[3]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 519

March 8–13, 2016 Hillary Clinton
60%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 6%
Public Policy Polling[4]

Margin of error: ± 3.9%
Sample size: 627

March 11–12, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 11%
CBS News/YouGov[5]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 796

March 9–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 4%
Florida Atlantic University[6]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 414

March 8–11, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
31%
Others / Undecided 10%
NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist[7]

Margin of error: ± 4.4%
Sample size: 500

March 4–10, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 5%
WTSP/Mason-Dixon[8]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 500

March 7–9, 2016 Hillary Clinton
68%
Bernie Sanders
23%
Others / Undecided 9%
Quinnipiac[9]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 511

March 2–7, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 6%
SurveyUSA/Bay News 9/News 13[10]

Margin of error: ± 3.4%
Sample size: 823

March 4–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
30%
Others / Undecided 9%
CNN/ORC[11]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 264

March 2–6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
61%
Bernie Sanders
34%
Others / Undecided 5%
Wash Post/Univision[12]

Margin of error: ± 6.0%
Sample size: 449

March 2-5, 2016 Hillary Clinton
64%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided 10%
University of North Florida[13]

Margin of error: ± 3.7%
Sample size: 685

February 22–27, 2016 Hillary Clinton
54%
Bernie Sanders
24%
Others / Undecided 22%
Public Policy Polling[14]

Margin of error: ± 5%
Sample size: 388

February 24–25, 2016 Hillary Clinton
57%
Bernie Sanders
32%
Others / Undecided 11%
Gravis Marketing[15]

Margin of error: ± 4.3%
Sample size: 514

February 24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
58%
Bernie Sanders
42%
Quinnipiac[16]

Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 476

February 21–24, 2016 Hillary Clinton
59%
Bernie Sanders
33%
Others / Undecided 8%
Florida Southern College[17]

Margin of error: ± 4.0%
Sample Size: 608

January 30 – February 6, 2016 Hillary Clinton
43%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Others / Undecided 31%
Florida Atlantic University[18]

Margin of error: ± 5.0%
Sample Size: 371

January 15–18, 2016 Hillary Clinton
62%
Bernie Sanders
26%
Martin O'Malley 2%
Not Reported

Results

 Democratic Party's presidential nominating process in Florida, 2016
– Summary of results –
Candidate Popular vote Estimated delegates
Count Percentage Pledged Unpledged Total
Hillary Clinton 1,101,414 64.44% 141 24 165
Bernie Sanders 568,839 33.28% 73 2 75
Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) 38,930 2.28%
Uncommitted N/A 0 6 6
Total 1,709,183 100% 214 32 246
Source: The Green Papers, Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results

Results By District

Florida Democratic primary, March 15, 2016
District Delegates Votes Clinton Votes Sanders Votes Qualified Clinton delegates Sanders delegates
1 3 26987 18497 45484 2 1
2 6 50190 34073 84263 4 2
3 4 32070 27974 60044 2 2
4 4 33920 22765 56685 2 2
5 6 55855 18639 74494 4 2
6 5 37995 24443 62438 3 2
7 5 37410 26795 64205 3 2
8 5 39384 24376 63760 3 2
9 5 40609 19880 60489 3 2
10 5 38011 22213 60224 3 2
11 5 38061 21590 59651 3 2
12 5 35498 23172 58670 3 2
13 6 44121 29707 73828 4 2
14 6 49146 23617 72763 4 2
15 5 32793 20712 53505 3 2
16 6 43921 25856 69777 4 2
17 4 29899 17045 46944 3 1
18 6 42804 20620 63424 4 2
19 4 31958 17235 49193 3 1
20 7 61998 15761 77759 6 1
21 7 57723 22100 79823 5 2
22 6 49602 22209 71811 4 2
23 6 44510 19974 64484 4 2
24 8 59274 13893 73167 6 2
25 3 24897 9287 34184 2 1
26 4 32069 14148 46217 3 1
27 4 30709 12258 42967 3 1
Total 140 1101414 568839 1670253 93 47
PLEO 28 1101414 568839 1670253 18 10
At Large 46 1101414 568839 1670253 30 16
Gr. Total 214 1101414 568839 1670253 141 73
Total vote 64.44% 33.28% 1,709,183
Source: Florida Department of State Division of Elections

Results By County

County [39] Clinton Votes Sanders Votes
Alachua 49.2% 17,733 48.8% 17,590
Baker 38.5% 654 47.4% 805
Bay 52.6% 5,209 41.7% 4,131
Bradford 48.7% 1,056 41.8% 908
Brevard 59.7% 31,835 37.7% 20,083
Broward 72.5% 132,527 26.4% 48,330
Calhoun 36.2% 437 45.2% 545
Charlotte 62.1% 8,125 35.4% 4,634
Citrus 56.3% 6,863 39.2% 4,776
Clay 57.1% 5,345 39.5% 3,698
Collier 66.1% 12,712 31.9% 6,127
Columbia 52.9% 2,299 38.6% 1,676
DeSoto 52.6% 987 38.7% 726
Dixie 40.2% 409 45.1% 459
Duval 67.2% 58,632 30.6% 26,716
Escambia 62.2% 16,765 34.6% 9,318
Flagler 65.8% 6,152 31.9% 2,977
Franklin 47.0% 665 45.7% 647
Gadsden 76.4% 7,446 20.0% 1,944
Gilchrist 37.5% 428 50.7% 578
Glades 49.9% 387 40.3% 313
Gulf 47.4% 568 43.4% 520
Hamilton 54.7% 758 34.6% 479
Hardee 52.7% 529 39.1% 393
Hendry 60.6% 1,156 33.9% 647
Hernando 59.6% 8,882 37.0% 5,512
Highlands 61.4% 3,711 34.0% 2,054
Hillsborough 62.8% 68,936 35.1% 38,505
Holmes 28.3% 339 51.7% 619
Indian River 62.4% 6,897 35.5% 3,926
Jackson 53.9% 2,798 35.5% 1,840
Jefferson 64.6% 1,671 29.5% 762
Lafayette 30.0% 295 50.9% 501
Lake 63.5% 15,914 33.8% 8,465
Lee 62.7% 27,940 35.0% 15,624
Leon 56.5% 27,333 41.1% 19,866
Levy 50.0% 1,570 43.1% 1,354
Liberty 47.1% 316 47.1% 392
Madison 62.4% 1,542 30.0% 741
Manatee 62.5% 18,116 35.1% 10,165
Marion 62.7% 18,220 34.1% 9,892
Martin 59.8% 6,523 37.6% 4,101
Miami-Dade 74.7% 129,467 24.3% 42,009
Monroe 55.3% 4,830 42.8% 3,739
Nassau 56.2% 2,910 39.8% 2,060
Okaloosa 52.0% 4,559 43.1% 3,782
Okeechobee 55.2% 1,150 37.6% 784
Orange 63.8% 66,654 35.1% 36,639
Osceola 68.2% 16,512 30.0% 7,273
Palm Beach 71.5% 103,369 27.2% 39,314
Pasco 58.3% 21,760 38.9% 14,493
Pinellas 60.3% 63,699 37.6% 39,742
Polk 63.0% 29,328 33.3% 15,473
Putnam 49.4% 3,182 42.7% 2,747
Santa Rosa 49.2% 3,938 45.0% 3,602
Sarasota 61.1% 25,881 37.3% 15,776
Seminole 58.3% 22,069 39.9% 15,100
St. Johns 57.0% 9,734 40.7% 6,953
St. Lucie 66.9% 17,554 30.8% 8,091
Sumter 68.1% 7,022 29.3% 3,022
Suwannee 42.2% 1,475 44.3% 1,550
Taylor 45.9% 983 42.4% 907
Union 36.7% 336 51.6% 472
Volusia 60.2% 26,276 37.1% 16,170
Wakulla 48.9% 1,659 42.0% 1,424
Walton 50.0% 1,515 44.9% 1,361
Washington 47.1% 858 42.9% 781
Total 64.4% 1,101,414 33.3% 568,839

Analysis

Florida was generally viewed as a state Hillary Clinton would win, given her strong performance in previous contests with older voters (who comprised 65% of the Democratic electorate in Florida, the largest in any contest) and non-white voters (who made up 52% of the electorate). Clinton won the Florida Primary by 31 points, winning older voters by a margin of 71-26, and non-white voters by a margin of 74-25. Specifically, she won Hispanic/Latino voters by a margin of 68-32 (who made up 20% of the electorate), and African American voters 81-18 (who comprised 27% of the electorate). Clinton also won white voters by a narrower margin of 53-43. She won across all income and educational attainment levels.[40]

In terms of religious affiliation, Clinton won Protestants in Florida 69-29 (36% of the electorate), Catholics 69-29 (22% of the electorate), and other religious affiliations 68-31 (Jews were 4% of the electorate but were unaccounted for in exit polls). Sanders won voters who identified as agnostic/atheist 56-31. In terms of political ideology, Clinton won liberals 59-41 and moderates/conservatives 70-26. And while Clinton won Democrats 71-28, Sanders won self-identified Independents 55-41.[41]

Clinton won in Miami and along the Gold Coast 73-26, where there is a larger population of Hispanic/Latino voters who in Florida are predominantly of Cuban or Puerto Rican descent. Clinton also won the Gulf Coast and Mid-Florida 64-35, the Tampa Bay Area 63-37, the Orlando area 62-34, and the Northern Panhandle which is whiter, more conservative and more rural by a smaller margin of 58-37.[42]

References

  1. Florida Division of Elections - Official Primary Results
  2. "ARG Florida Poll March 11-13, 2016".
  3. "March 14, 2016 - Trump Tops Rubio In Florida, Ties Kasich In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Clinton Leads Sanders In Two Critical Primaries".
  4. "Midwestern States a Toss Up Tuesday" (PDF).
  5. "Poll: Trump and Kasich neck-and-neck in Ohio; Trump leads in Florida".
  6. "Poll: Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz split anti-Donald Trump vote in Florida".
  7. "Polls: Trump Ahead in Florida, Illinois; Kasich Leads in Ohio".
  8. "Poll: Rubio closing in on Trump in Florida".
  9. "WOMEN DRIVE CLINTON TO 2-1 LEAD AMONG FLORIDA DEMS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; SHE HAS 9-POINT LEAD IN OHIO" (PDF).
  10. "Exclusive Florida Decides Poll: Trump, Clinton lead Florida's presidential primaries".
  11. "CNN/ORC Poll: Trump, Clinton leading in Florida, Ohio".
  12. "Washington Post-Univision News Florida Democratic primary survey March 2016". The Washington Post. Retrieved March 10, 2016.
  13. "Minority voters help Clinton dominate Sanders in Florida poll". Politico Florida. Retrieved February 29, 2016.
  14. "Trump Leads Rubio in Florida- Even Head to Head" (PDF). Public Polling Policy. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  15. "Florida Polling Results". One America News Network. Retrieved March 5, 2016.
  16. "WOMEN GIVE CLINTON BIG LEAD AMONG FLORIDA DEMOCRATS, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY POLL FINDS; YOUNG VOTERS GO TO SANDERS" (PDF). Quinnipiac. Retrieved February 26, 2016.
  17. "The Florida Southern College Center for Polling and Policy Research" (PDF). Quinnipiac University. February 6, 2016.
  18. 1 2 "Polls". FAU College of Business. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  19. "Florida Decides Poll: Trump dominates among Florida voters". baynews9.com.
  20. "Polling Institute at Saint Leo University – Ben Carson Nearly Ties with Frontrunner Trump Nationally Among Likely GOP Voters, while Jeb Bush Trails, Nationally and in Florida". Polling Institute at Saint Leo University.
  21. "2016 Presidential Swing State Polls Poll". Quinnipiac University. October 7, 2015.
  22. "Florida Down on Bush, Rubio Campaigns" (PDF). Public Policy Polling. 15 September 2015.
  23. "Florida Poll (September 12, 2015)3 (2)". Scribd.
  24. "Poll: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump lead in Florida". Retrieved 2015-09-06.
  25. "Quinnipiac poll" (PDF). Quinnipiac.edu. Retrieved 2015-08-20.
  26. "Florida Statewide Democratic Primary Election survey" (PDF). Retrieved 2015-07-30.
  27. "BUSH TOP CHOICE OF STATE GOP VOTERS RUBIO DROPS, WALKER RUNS 3RD – AHEAD OF TRUMP, CLINTON HAS WIDE LEAD AMONG DEMOCRATS". Retrieved 2015-07-24.
  28. "Current Democratic and Republican Polling in Florida – Gravis". Retrieved 2015-07-09.
  29. http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ps/ps06182015_Sk32gth.pdf
  30. Quinnipiac University. "2016 Presidential Swing State Polls Poll – April 2, 2015 – Bush Slips In Florida, Stalls – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  31. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_32415.pdf
  32. "Gravis Insights Florida Political Primary Poll Republican and Democrat". Gravis.
  33. Quinnipiac University. "2016 Presidential Swing State Polls Poll – – – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  34. Quinnipiac University. "Florida (FL) Poll – July 24, 2014 – Obama In Slump, But Clinton Sc – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  35. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_FL_611.pdf
  36. Quinnipiac University. "Florida (FL) Poll – May 1, 2014 – Jeb Bush Is Top Dog In Florida – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  37. Quinnipiac University. "Florida (FL) Poll – January 31, 2014 – Bridgegate Drives Christie To – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  38. Quinnipiac University. "Florida (FL) Poll – November 22, 2013 – Jeb Bush, Clinton Tops In Flor – Quinnipiac University Connecticut". QU Poll.
  39. http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/counties/fl/dem
  40. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-08-07.
  41. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
  42. "2016 Election Center". CNN. Retrieved 2016-09-25.
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