Division of Page

Page
Australian House of Representatives Division

Division of Page in New South Wales, as of the 2016 federal election.
Created 1984
MP Kevin Hogan
Party The Nationals
Namesake Sir Earle Page
Electors 117,317 (2016)
Area 19,342 km2 (7,468.0 sq mi)
Demographic Rural

The Division of Page is an Australian electoral division in the state of New South Wales. It is located in the far north-east of the state, adjoining the border with Queensland and the Tasman Sea. The division is named after the Right Honourable Sir Earle Page, the first leader of the Country Party of Australia and the caretaker Prime Minister of Australia after the death of Joseph Lyons in 1939. The division was proclaimed at the redistribution of 11 October 1984, and was first contested at the 1984 federal election.

The division includes the towns of Lismore, Casino, Grafton, Tyringham, Bonalbo, Nimbin and Iluka. Originally, much of its current territory (including Page's home of Grafton) was located in neighbouring Cowper, which Page represented from 1919 to 1961. In February 2016, Page's borders were extended as far south as Sapphire Beach.[1]

The current Member for Page, since the 2013 federal election, is Kevin Hogan, a member of The Nationals.

Ahead of the 2016 federal election, ABC psephologist Antony Green listed the seat in his election guide as one of eleven which he classed as "bellwether" electorates.[2]

History

Unlike most country seats in northern NSW, which are fairly safe for the Nationals, Page is a marginal seat, swinging between the National Party and the Labor Party. It is one of the few country seats where Labor is usually competitive. It has been a bellwether seat since the 1990 election, having been won by the party winning government at every election.

It was previously held by Ian Causley, the Deputy Speaker of the Australian House of Representatives. Causley retired at the 2007 election, and Chris Gulaptis, a former Mayor of Maclean, was endorsed as the Nationals' candidate. Labor selected Janelle Saffin, a former member of the New South Wales Legislative Council, who took the seat with a swing of around 8 per cent. Saffin increased her majority in 2010, however was defeated in 2013 by the Nationals' Kevin Hogan, who won with a swing of 6.71 per cent. Saffin will attempt to defeat Hogan at the 2016 election.

Members

MemberPartyTerm
  Ian Robinson National 1984–1990
  Harry Woods Labor 1990–1996
  Ian Causley National 1996–2007
  Janelle Saffin Labor 2007–2013
  Kevin Hogan National 2013–present

Election results

Australian federal election, 2016: Page[3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
National Kevin Hogan 46,327 44.28 −2.15
Labor Janelle Saffin 36,471 34.86 −1.03
Greens Kudra Falla-Ricketts 11,649 11.14 +2.09
Liberal Democrats Mark Ellis 4,199 4.01 +4.01
Animal Justice Anna Ludvik 2,984 2.85 +2.85
Christian Democrats Bethany McAlpine 2,982 2.85 +0.98
Total formal votes 104,612 96.16 +1.02
Informal votes 4,181 3.84 −1.02
Turnout 108,793 92.73 −1.26
Two-party-preferred result
National Kevin Hogan 54,717 52.30 −0.80
Labor Janelle Saffin 49,895 47.70 +0.80
National hold Swing −0.80

References

  1. ↑ "Profile of the electoral division of Page (NSW)". Australian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 2016-03-18.
  2. ↑ The Bellwether Contests: Antony Green ABC
  3. ↑ Page, NSW, Virtual Tally Room 2016, Australian Electoral Commission.

External links

Coordinates: 29°16′30″S 152°48′14″E / 29.275°S 152.804°E / -29.275; 152.804

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