42nd Ontario general election

On or before June 7, 2018 (2018-06-07)

122 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario 62 seats needed for a majority

Opinion polls

Leader	Kathleen Wynne	Patrick Brown	Andrea Horwath
Party	Liberal	Progressive Conservative	New Democratic
Leader since	January 26, 2013	May 9, 2015	March 7, 2009
Leader's seat	Don Valley West	Simcoe North	Hamilton Centre
Last election	58 seats, 38.65%	28 seats, 31.25%	21 seats, 23.75%
Current seats	58	29	20

Incumbent Premier

Kathleen Wynne
Liberal

The 42nd Ontario general election is scheduled to be held on or before June 7, 2018.^[1] Under amendments passed by the Legislative Assembly of Ontario in 2004, Ontario elections have been held on the first Thursday of October in the fourth calendar year unless the Assembly is dissolved earlier by the Lieutenant Governor of Ontario due to a motion of no confidence or on the advice of the Premier of Ontario.^[2] A motion of no confidence is unlikely as the current government has a majority, though Premier Kathleen Wynne stated in June 2015 that she will likely advise to dissolve the Legislature in the spring of 2018 rather than in October of that year in order to avoid any conflict with municipal elections and take advantage of better weather and longer days.^[3] Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduced Bill 45 to the Legislative Assembly in October 2016 to amend the 2004 fixed election date law to the first Thursday in June of the fourth calendar year, meaning the 2018 election will be held on or before June 7.^[1]

Ridings

On June 4, 2015, the government introduced Bill 115, Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015,^[4] to the Legislature, and it received Royal Assent on December 3, 2015. Bill 115 increases the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, following along the boundaries set out by the federal 2013 Representation Order for Ontario, while preserving the special boundaries of the 11 seats in Northern Ontario set out in the 1996 redistribution.

Standings

Summary of the standings of the Legislative Assembly of Ontario


Party		Party leader	Seats
Party		Party leader	2014	Current
	Liberal	Kathleen Wynne	58	58
	Progressive Conservative	Patrick Brown	28	29
	New Democratic	Andrea Horwath	21	20
	Vacant			0
Total			107	107

Timeline

2014

June 12: The Liberal Party under Kathleen Wynne wins a majority government in the 41st Ontario general election. Progressive Conservative leader Tim Hudak announces his intention to step down following the selection of his successor.^[5]
July 2: Tim Hudak resigns as leader of the Progressive Conservatives.^[6] Simcoe—Grey MPP Jim Wilson is named interim leader.^[7]
July 24: The Liberals pass their May 1 budget in its final reading.
November 20: Joe Cimino, the New Democratic Party MPP for Sudbury, resigns his seat, citing family reasons.^[8]

2015

February 5: Liberal candidate Glenn Thibeault is elected in a Sudbury by-election, gaining a seat that had been held by the NDP.^[9]
May 9: Patrick Brown, the Conservative federal MP for Barrie, is elected leader of the Progressive Conservative Party.^[10]
August 1: PC Simcoe North MPP Garfield Dunlop, resigns his seat to allow PC leader Patrick Brown to have a chance to run for a seat. Premier Kathleen Wynne orders a by-election for September 3, 2015.
August 28: PC Whitby—Oshawa MPP Christine Elliott resigns her seat.
September 3: PC Leader Patrick Brown is elected in the Simcoe North by-election.
September 24: Ontario Provincial Police lay charges in relation to the Sudbury byelection scandal.^[11]
December 3: Bill 115, the Electoral Boundaries Act, 2015, which increases the number of electoral districts from 107 to 122, receives Royal Assent.

2016

February 11: Lorne Coe is elected in the Whitby—Oshawa by-election, maintaining the seat for the PC's.
March 22: Liberal Scarborough—Rouge River MPP Bas Balkissoon resigns his seat.
June 30: Liberal Ottawa—Vanier MPP Madeleine Meilleur resigns her seat.
September 1: PC candidate Raymond Cho is elected in the Scarborough—Rouge River by-election, gaining a seat held by the Liberals.
September 16: PC Niagara West—Glanbrook MPP and former PC leader Tim Hudak resigns his seat.^[12]
October 19: Two provincial by-elections have been called for November 17 to fill vacant seats in the Ottawa-Vanier and Niagara-West Glanbrook ridings.^[13]
October 19: Attorney General of Ontario Yasir Naqvi introduces Bill 45, the Election Statute Law Amendment Act, 2016, which would move Ontario's fixed election date from the first Thursday in October to the first Thursday in June among other changes for First Reading.^[14]^[1]
November 1: Ontario Provincial Police announce charges under the provincial act against Gerry Lougheed and Patricia Sorbara (CEO and director of the 2018 Liberal campaign) for alleged bribery during a 2015 byelection.^[15] Sorbara announced that she will step down from the campaign.^[16]
November 17: PC candidate Sam Oosterhoff is elected in the Niagara West—Glanbrook by-election,^[17] and Liberal candidate Nathalie Des Rosiers is elected in the Ottawa—Vanier by-election.^[18]

Incumbent MPPs not running for re-election

Liberals

Glen Murray, Toronto Centre^[19]

New Democratic Party

Cheri DiNovo, Parkdale—High Park^[20]

Candidates by region

† = Not seeking re-election
‡ = Running for re-election in different riding
Italicization indicates candidate for nomination
Highlight indicates nomination meeting has been scheduled
~~Strikethrough indicates nomination candidate disqualified or withdrew~~

East

Ottawa

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Carleton		Goldie Ghamari				New District
Kanata—Carleton		~~Craig Dunbar~~^[21] Merrilee Fullerton^[22] Rick Keindel^[23] Jack MacLaren^[24]				Jack MacLaren Carleton—Mississippi Mills
Nepean		Lisa MacLeod^[25] Riven Zhang^[26]				Lisa MacLeod Nepean—Carleton
Orléans		December 4, 2016 Cameron Montgomery^[27]				Marie-France Lalonde Ottawa—Orléans
Ottawa Centre						Yasir Naqvi
Ottawa South						John Fraser
Ottawa—Vanier	Nathalie Des Rosiers					Nathalie Des Rosiers
Ottawa West—Nepean		Karma MacGregor^[28] Jeremy Roberts^[29]				Bob Chiarelli

Eastern Ontario

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Bay of Quinte		Todd Smith^[30]				Todd Smith Prince Edward—Hastings
Glengarry—Prescott—Russell		Amanda Simard				Grant Crack
Hastings—Lennox and Addington		Daryl Kramp				New District
Kingston and the Islands						Sophie Kiwala
Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston						Randy Hillier Lanark—Frontenac—Lennox and Addington
Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes		Steve Clark				Steve Clark Leeds—Grenville
Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke						John Yakabuski
Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry						Jim McDonell

Central Ontario

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Barrie—Innisfil						Ann Hoggarth Barrie
Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte		Patrick Brown^[31]				New District
Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound						Bill Walker
Dufferin—Caledon						Sylvia Jones
Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock						Laurie Scott
Northumberland—Peterborough South						Lou Rinaldi Northumberland—Quinte West
Peterborough—Kawartha						Jeff Leal Peterborough
Simcoe—Grey						Jim Wilson
Simcoe North		Doug Downey^[32] Jill Dunlop^[33]				Patrick Brown ‡
York—Simcoe						Julia Munro

905 Belt

Durham and York

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Ajax						Joe Dickson Ajax—Pickering
Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill		Michael Parsa				New District
Durham		Mike Patrick^[34]				Granville Anderson
King—Vaughan		Ed Dallal^[35] Stephen Lecce^[36] Konstantin Toubis				New District
Markham—Stouffville		Paul Calandra				Helena Jaczek Oak Ridges—Markham
Markham—Thornhill		December 18, 2016 Logan Kanapathi^[37] Jim Kwan^[38] Nimal Vinayagamoorthy^[39]				New District
Markham—Unionville		Andrew Keyes^[40] Billy Pang^[41] Kai Tao^[42]				Michael Chan
Newmarket—Aurora		Maddie Di Muccio^[43] Bill Hogg^[44] Charity McGrath^[45]				Chris Ballard
Oshawa						Jennifer French
Pickering—Uxbridge		December 15, 2016 Peter Bethlenfalvy^[46]				Tracy MacCharles Pickering—Scarborough East
Richmond Hill		Ted Leider^[47]				Reza Moridi
Thornhill		Gila Martow				Gila Martow
Vaughan—Woodbridge						Steven Del Duca Vaughan
Whitby		Lorne Coe				Lorne Coe Whitby—Oshawa

Brampton, Mississauga & Oakville

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Brampton Centre		Harjit Jaswal^[48]				New District
Brampton East		Gulab Singh^[49]				Jagmeet Singh Bramalea—Gore—Malton
Brampton North		Jass Johal				Harinder Malhi Brampton—Springdale
Brampton South		Prabmeet Sarkaria				New District
Brampton West		Jermaine Chambers^[50] Randeep Sandhu^[51]				Vic Dhillon
Mississauga Centre		December 10, 2016 Urz Heer^[52] Tim Iqbal^[53] Angely Pacis^[54]				New District
Mississauga East—Cooksville		Mian Ashraf^[55] Tassawar Syed^[56]				Dipika Damerla
Mississauga—Erin Mills		Jaspreet Bassi^[57] Bob Dechert^[58] Mohammad Latif^[59] Sheref Sabawy^[60] Nadeem Shaikh^[61]				Harinder Takhar Mississauga—Erindale
Mississauga—Lakeshore						Charles Sousa Mississauga South
Mississauga—Malton						Amrit Mangat Mississauga—Brampton South
Mississauga—Streetsville		December 4, 2016 Athar Aryan Amir^[62] Nita Kang^[63] Ghada Melek^[64] Nina Tangri^[65]				Bob Delaney
Oakville						Kevin Flynn
Oakville North—Burlington						Indira Naidoo-Harris Halton

Toronto

Scarborough

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Scarborough—Agincourt		Aris Babikian^[66] Cozette Giannini^[67]				Soo Wong
Scarborough Centre		John Papadakis^[68]				Brad Duguid
Scarborough—Guildwood						Mitzie Hunter
Scarborough North		Raymond Cho				Raymond Cho Scarborough—Rouge River
Scarborough—Rouge Park		Kavitha Vara Senthil^[69] Shean Sinnarajah^[70]				New District
Scarborough Southwest						Lorenzo Berardinetti

North York and North Toronto

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Don Valley East						Michael Coteau
Don Valley North	Shelley Carroll^[71]					New District
Don Valley West	Kathleen Wynne^[72]	Dean Baxendale^[73] Jon Kieran^[74]				Kathleen Wynne
Eglinton—Lawrence		Robin Martin^[75]	Thomas Gallezot^[76]			Michael Colle
Willowdale						David Zimmer
York Centre		January 15, 2017 Roman Baber^[77] Joe Oliver^[78] ~~Edward Prutschi~~^[79]				Monte Kwinter

Toronto and East York

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Beaches—East York						Arthur Potts
Davenport						Cristina Martins
Spadina—Fort York		Sabrina Zuniga^[80]				Han Dong Trinity—Spadina
Toronto Centre						Glen Murray †
Toronto—Danforth						Peter Tabuns
Toronto—St. Paul's						Eric Hoskins St. Paul's
University—Rosedale						New District

Etobicoke and York

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Etobicoke Centre		Kinga Surma				Yvan Baker
Etobicoke North						Shafiq Qadri
Etobicoke—Lakeshore						Peter Milczyn
Humber River—Black Creek						Sergio Marchi York West
Parkdale—High Park						Cheri DiNovo †
York South—Weston		Mark Silver^[81]				Laura Albanese

Hamilton, Burlington and Niagara

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Burlington		Jane McKenna				Eleanor McMahon
Flamborough—Glanbrook		Dan Sadler^[82] Nick Lauwers^[83]				New District
Hamilton Centre						Andrea Horwath
Hamilton East—Stoney Creek						Paul Miller
Hamilton Mountain						Monique Taylor
Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas		Ben Levitt^[84] Jeff Peller^[85]				Ted McMeekin Ancaster—Dundas—Flamborough—Westdale
Milton		Mike Cluett^[86] Parm Gill^[87]				New District
Niagara Centre						Cindy Forster Welland
Niagara Falls		Mike Strange^[88]				Wayne Gates
Niagara West		Sam Oosterhoff				Sam Oosterhoff Niagara West—Glanbrook
St. Catherines						Jim Bradley

Midwestern Ontario

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Brantford—Brant						Dave Levac Brant
Cambridge						Kathryn McGarry
Guelph						Liz Sandals
Haldimand—Norfolk						Toby Barrett
Huron—Bruce						Lisa Thompson
Kitchener Centre						Daiene Vernile
Kitchener—Conestoga						Michael Harris
Kitchener South—Hespeler						New District
Oxford						Ernie Hardeman
Perth—Wellington						Randy Pettapiece
Waterloo						Catherine Fife Kitchener—Waterloo
Wellington—Halton Hills						Ted Arnott

Southwestern Ontario

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Chatham-Kent—Leamington						Rick Nicolls Chatham-Kent—Essex
Elgin—Middlesex—London						Jeff Yurek
Essex						Taras Natyshak
Lambton—Kent—Middlesex						Monte McNaughton
London—Fanshawe						Teresa Armstrong
London North Centre	Deb Matthews^[89]	Zach Engel^[90] Susan Truppe^[91]				Deb Matthews
London West		Jake Skinner^[92]				Peggy Sattler
Sarnia—Lambton						Bob Bailey
Windsor—Tecumseh						Percy Hatfield
Windsor West		Adam Ibrahim				Lisa Gretzky

Northern Ontario

Electoral District						Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Incumbent
Algoma—Manitoulin						Michael Mantha
Kenora—Rainy River						Sarah Campbell
Nickel Belt						France Gelinas
Nipissing						Victor Fedeli
Parry Sound—Muskoka						Norm Miller
Sault Ste. Marie		Ross Romano				David Orazietti
Sudbury						Glenn Thibeault
Thunder Bay—Atikokan						Bill Mauro
Thunder Bay—Superior North						Claude Gravelle
Timiskaming—Cochrane						John Vanthof
Timmins—James Bay						Gilles Bisson

Opinion polls

Polling firm	Last date of polling	Link	Liberal	PC	NDP	Green	Other	Type of poll	Sample size	Margin of Error
Forum Research	000000002016-11-21-0000November 21, 2016	PDF	24	43	24	8	2	IVR	1,184	±3%
Nanos Research	000000002016-11-19-0000November 19, 2016	PDF	31.9	39.9	22.2	5.2	0.8	Telephone	500	±4.4%
Mainstreet Research	000000002016-11-02-0000November 2, 2016	HTML	25	43	27	6	-	IVR	2,524	±1.95%
Forum Research	000000002016-10-18-0000October 18, 2016	PDF	24	43	23	8	2	IVR	1,124	±3%
Innovative Research	000000002016-09-24-0000September 24, 2016	PDF	33	38	20	8	-	Telephone	600	±4.0%
Ipsos Reid	000000002016-09-22-0000September 22, 2016	HTML	40	35	20	5	-	Online	800	±4%
Mainstreet Research	000000002016-09-18-0000September 18, 2016	HTML	28	43	23	6	-	IVR	2,562	±1.94%
Forum Research	000000002016-09-13-0000September 13, 2016	PDF	25	45	23	6	2	IVR	1,154	±3%
Ipsos Reid	000000002016-09-09-0000September 9, 2016	HTML	35	37	23	5	-	Online	800	±4%
Forum Research	000000002016-08-15-0000August 15, 2016	PDF	28	41	23	6	2	IVR	1,097	±3%
Forum Research	000000002016-07-12-0000July 12, 2016	PDF	35	42	17	5	2	IVR	1,183	±3%
Forum Research	000000002016-06-21-0000June 21, 2016	PDF	30	40	21	8	2	IVR	1,173	±3%
Forum Research	000000002016-05-31-0000May 31, 2016	PDF	30	40	21	7	2	IVR	1,172	±3%
Mainstreet Research	000000002016-05-18-0000May 18, 2016	HTML	36	38	20	5	-	IVR	2,537	±1.95%
Forum Research	000000002016-04-25-0000April 25, 2016	PDF	34	39	21	5	2	IVR	1,157	±3%
Forum Research	000000002016-03-23-0000March 23, 2016	PDF	30	40	24	5	2	IVR	1,225	±3%
Forum Research	000000002016-02-29-0000February 29, 2016	PDF	27	44	22	6	2	IVR	1,148	±3%
Mainstreet Research	000000002016-02-16-0000February 16, 2016	HTML	33	36	26	5	-	IVR	2,623	±1.91%
Forum Research	000000002015-12-20-0000December 20, 2015	PDF	31	34	26	7	2	IVR	1,003	±3%
Ipsos Reid	000000002015-11-09-0000November 9, 2015	HTML	44	31	20	4	-	Online	1,002	±3.5%
Forum Research	000000002015-11-04-0000November 4, 2015	PDF	30	36	26	6	1	IVR	1,158	±3%
Mainstreet Research	000000002015-11-01-0000November 1, 2015	HTML	28	40	25	7	-	IVR	2,506	±1.96%
Mainstreet Research	000000002015-09-21-0000September 21, 2015	HTML	30	40	24	7	-	IVR	4,610	±1.5%
Forum Research	000000002015-08-13-0000August 13, 2015	PDF	26	35	33	4	2	IVR	1,001	±3%
Forum Research	000000002015-07-05-0000July 5, 2015	PDF	26	32	35	5	2	IVR	678	±4%
Ipsos Reid	000000002015-05-20-0000May 20, 2015	HTML	34	32	25	8	-	Online	1,002	±3.5%
Innovative Research	000000002015-05-19-0000May 19, 2015	PDF	34	35	24	6	-	Telephone	606	±4.0%
Forum Research	000000002015-05-11-0000May 11, 2015	PDF	24	33	36	5	2	IVR	1,001	±3%
Forum Research	000000002015-04-30-0000April 30, 2015	PDF	29	36	24	9	2	IVR	912	±3%
Innovative Research	000000002015-04-26-0000April 26, 2015	PDF	40	33	18	8	1	Online	1,017
Forum Research	000000002015-03-26-0000March 26, 2015	PDF	29	34	27	8	2	IVR	881	±3%
Environics	000000002015-03-25-0000March 25, 2015	HTML	32	33	27	7	-	Telephone	989	±3.1%
Forum Research	000000002015-02-27-0000February 27, 2015	PDF	32	39	21	6	2	IVR	996	±3%
Forum Research	000000002015-01-30-0000January 30, 2015	PDF	37	36	19	6	2	IVR	1,028	±3%
Forum Research	000000002014-12-20-0000December 20, 2014	PDF	35	36	20	7	2	IVR	1,058	±3%
Forum Research	000000002014-11-29-0000November 29, 2014	PDF	37	37	17	7	2	IVR	1,054	±3%
Forum Research	000000002014-11-01-0000November 1, 2014	PDF	40	35	19	4	2	IVR	1,104	±3%
Forum Research	000000002014-10-01-0000October 1, 2014	PDF	36	34	23	6	1	IVR	1,079	±3%
Forum Research	000000002014-08-21-0000August 21, 2014	PDF	39	32	19	8	2	IVR	1,229	±3%
2014 election	000000002014-06-12-0000June 12, 2014	HTML	38.65	31.25	23.75	4.84	1.51

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↑ https://www.facebook.com/votecozettegiannini/
↑ https://www.facebook.com/John-Papadakis-Nomination-Candidate-Ont-PC-Party-for-Scarborough-Center-1758338121088147/
↑ http://cantamilmedia.com/ontarios-nomination-contest-in-the-riding-of-scarborough-rouge/
↑ https://twitter.com/SheanSinnarajah
↑ https://www.thestar.com/news/city_hall/2016/10/11/north-york-councillor-shelley-carroll-seeking-provincial-liberal-nomination.html
↑ https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/09/02/wynne-sticking-around-despite-scarborough-rouge-river-byelection-loss.html
↑ https://twitter.com/baxendaledean/status/795011320592629764
↑ https://twitter.com/jonwkieran/status/800163771817852928
↑ "Gila Martow on Twitter". Twitter.
↑ https://www.facebook.com/Thomas.Gallezot/?hc_ref=SEARCH&fref=nf
↑ http://www.romanbaber.ca/
↑ https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2016/10/25/joe-oliver-to-run-for-ontario-tories-in-2018-election.html
↑ "Edward Prutschi on Twitter". Twitter.
↑ https://twitter.com/SabrinaZunigaTO
↑ https://twitter.com/RealMarkSilver/status/753913877427986436
↑ https://www.facebook.com/dansadler2018/?fref=ts
↑ http://www.flamboroughreview.com/news-story/6907984-mount-hope-resident-seeks-flamborough-glanbrook-ontario-pc-nomination/
↑ https://twitter.com/WerkHCN/status/786385239060819969
↑ http://nominatejeffpeller.com/
↑ http://www.completecommunity.ca/
↑ https://www.facebook.com/MPParmGill/posts/1162254647223769
↑ http://www.niagarafallsreview.ca/2016/09/16/strange-eyeing-pc-nomination
↑ http://www.lfpress.com/2016/11/08/susan-truppe-to-run-against-deputy-premier-deb-matthews
↑ http://zachengel.com/
↑ http://ottawacitizen.com/news/local-news/reevely-former-federal-finance-minister-joe-oliver-wants-a-provincial-tory-nomination
↑ http://www.jakeskinner.ca/

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